foreword


Travel demand strong despite weak economy


A QUESTION uppermost in outbound- travel industry minds going into 2024 was could we possibly see as consistently strong demand in the year ahead as in 2023? From the start to January, it appeared we might. To appreciate how remarkable that and


the past 12 months have been, it’s worth looking back to the last issue of this Insight report, published in December 2022. Then it appeared rising inflation would not be reined in without a recession. The report quoted Virgin Atlantic chief executive Shai Weiss’s November 2022 prediction that “it’s going to be a tough 2023”. There were challenges in the last year,


but few would describe the travel market as “tough”. The UK economy avoided the forecast recession and the interminable cost-of-living crisis failed to prevent close to record numbers booking overseas holidays. There was conflicting evidence on the


state of the UK economy at the turn of the year, with inflation unexpectedly ticking higher in December. Yet weak economic growth and sustained higher interest rates appear likely for the year ahead. Not one but two wars now compound


the picture, threatening to trigger higher energy prices, with Israel’s war on Gaza and the fallout from Houthis’ attacks on shipping diverting freight and fuel around the coast of Africa. The UK year will be dominated by the forthcoming general election, skewing government business, distracting ministers’ attention and making a resolution on Atol reform unlikely. There were some notable steps taken


to address travel’s need to decarbonise and become more sustainable, including a first transatlantic flight using entirely non-fossil fuel and a heroic attempt to bring every hotel in Turkey (Turkiye) up to Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC) accredited standards. But there was no step change in


progress and broadly the conclusion of last year’s report must stand: “The industry will not be able to rely on demonstrating reductions in its carbon intensity to escape


6 Travel Weekly Insight Report 2024


Consumer research for this report suggests no let-up in demand for overseas holidays but efforts to control spending


sanctions if total emissions don’t fall.” Total emissions are not falling. The challenge to decarbonise is becoming harder. Entry for UK travellers to Europe and


visitors to the UK will change this year. An EU Entry/Exit System (EES) will be introduced – expected after the Paris Olympics – to register non-EU residents at the Schengen Area border, replacing passport stamping. It could cause delays as visitors will need profiles creating with facial images and fingerprints. This follows the UK’s launch in November of an Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA), initially for visitors from Qatar. The scheme, costing £10 and valid for two years, will be extended to all non-UK nationals not requiring a visa by the end of 2024. Consumer research for this report


suggests outbound travel demand should be at least as strong in 2024 as 2023. But there is clear evidence of consumers looking to control their spending by travelling outside peak season, reducing holiday durations and so on. I am once again indebted to Service


Science for facilitating the research for this report and to Deloitte and the many Deloitte contributors for their time and expertise.


Ian Taylor executive editor, Travel Weekly ian.taylor@ travelweekly.co.uk


MORE than half of UK adults


took an overseas holiday in 2023 (Figures 1 & 2), with three in four households with children doing so and 46% taking more than


one holiday. There were sharp increases on both 2022 and


2019 (Figure 3). Almost three in four adults took a UK domestic holiday in the year (Figure 4)


PICTURE: Steve Dunlop


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