AIR TRAVEL


IATA RAISED its airlines’ profits forecast for 2023 at the close of the year, estimating carriers made a collective $23 billion and predicted a rise to almost $26 billion in 2024 on the back of record revenues. Yet Iata noted a net margin of just 2.7% remained “well below the cost of capital”. The association forecast global


passenger numbers would reach bELOOLRQ LQ WRWDO RI


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hailed the figures as “a tribute to aviation’s resilience” and forecast “more-normal growth patterns from ZKLOH QRWLQJ “7KH SDQGHPLF FRVW ە


aviation about four years’ growth.” But :DOVK DUJXHG “,QGXVWU\ SURILWV PXVW EH SXW LQWR SHUVSHFWLYH $ PDUJLQ RI


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to build a future resilient to shocks.” Air traffic in Europe remained about OHYHO LQ SDUW GXH WR D Vۑ EHORZ


capacity shortfall owing to delays in deliveries of new aircraft and parts. :DOVK QRWHG “:H ZRXOG KDYH VHHQ PRUH capacity without supply chain delays. Demand has slightly outstripped capacity. >0DQXIDFWXUHUV@ FRQWLQXH WR GLVDSSRLQW with delays to deliveries and spare parts.” The big winner was Ryanair which PRUH FDSDFLW\ LQ WKH


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Michael O’Leary reporting the carrier had “taken enormous swathes of market share in almost all markets”. O’Leary suggested “D KXJH DPRXQW RI >ULYDO@ FDSDFLW\ KDV been weeded out” and argued overall capacity would remain constrained ەVUDH\ “IRU WKH QH[W IRXU WR ILYH 7KHUH ZDV QR UHSHDW RI WKH H[WHQVLYH


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AIR passenger numbers


in the UK neared the 2019 level in 2023 (Figure 51)


‘Demand has outstripped capacity’


Airlines returned to profit and air operations to ‘normal’, but the challenge of decarbonising hung over aviation


seriously marred on occasions. Serious delays at UK arrivals at the start of the :KLWVXQ EDQN KROLGD\ ZHUH FDXVHG E\ WKH IDLOXUH RI DOO


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to a badly timed system upgrade. But that was nothing compared with


the August bank holiday shutdown of UK air traffic control (ATC) by system provider Nats which delayed hundreds of thousands of passengers. An independent UHYLHZ RI ZKDW KDSSHQHG VHW XS E\ WKH &$$ ZDV GXH WR UHSRUW LQ -DQXDU\ $OWKRXJK LWV IRFXV ZDV RQ 1DWV WKH review was also asked to consider the impact of “delays and cancellations” and how airlines and airports “met ەVQRLWDJLOER WKHLU SDVVHQJHU ULJKWV LQFOXGLQJ “FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WLPHOLQHVV RI UHURXWHLQJ DQG UHERRNLQJ DQG management of vulnerable passengers”. The Nats failure was separate from


ATC issues at Gatwick where a shortage of controllers caused delays and cancellations periodically through the year. The CAA held regular meetings with Gatwick and Nats “to ensure resilience” which were due to continue until March this year.


SUSTAINABLE FUEL Virgin Atlantic’s operation of a flight between Heathrow and New York using VXVWDLQDEOH DYLDWLRQ IXHO 6$) LQ


November was the standout event FIGURE 51:


100 150 200 250 300


50 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017


UK AIRPORT PASSENGER NUMBERS, 1999-2023 284m292m 297m


268m 168m 179m180m 188m 199m 215m 227m 234m 240m 235m 218m 219m 210m 228m 220m 238m 251m 206m 268m


74m


64m 20192020 20212022 2023* UK and international passengers, outbound, inbound and domestic, to nearest million *12 months to Oct 2023 Source: CAA Travel Weekly Insight Report 2024 41


Passengers (million)


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