Inbound


competitors attracting visitors ‘at our expense’


VISITBRITAIN estimated international visitor numbers hit 37.8 million in the year to December, 92% of 2019’s level, with spending at a record £31.7 billion, 12% up on 2019 but 8% down adjusted for inflation. That was up on the forecast in July


after ONS data put inbound visits in the nine months to September at 28 million and visitors’ spending at £23 billion, with the average spend per trip up from £684 in 2019 to £817 and average duration increasing from 6.4 to 7.3 nights. Visitor numbers in the nine months


remained 8% down on 2019 although 30% up on 2022. However, VisitBritain noted the recovery “hit a plateau” in the summer, with visits in July to September slipping to 89% of 2019 levels. Holiday visits remained 6% down on


2019 over the nine months while visits to friends or relatives rose 3%. Business trips remained 29% down on 2019. US visitors led the inbound recovery


with spending 28% up on 2019 even adjusted for inflation, and VisitBritain forecast the US market would be worth £6.7 billion in 2024, contributing 20% of all inbound spending. However, the pace of recovery from Europe slowed as 2023 progressed, with spending in real terms remaining just below the 2019 level. China, the UK’s second most-


valuable inbound market in 2019, continued to lag following the country’s


The Deloitte view


The number of inbound visitors to the UK has been on the rise since the end of the pandemic, with a 24% increase in visits from April to June 2023 compared with the same period in 2022. VisitBritain data shows this corresponds


to a drop of only 5% on the 9.9 million inbound visits in the second quarter of 2019. European visitors accounted for 63% of visitors to the UK in the second quarter of 2023 compared with 72% during the same period in 2022. The change in proportions was driven by an increase in visitors from


54 Travel Weekly Insight Report 2024


North America, which recorded a record two million visitors during the period – a 27% increase on pre-pandemic levels. Inbound business travel increased after


a steady 2022, with a 31% rise in the second quarter of 2023 over the same period in 2022. We expect inbound business travel to remain significant. However, the escalating cost of flights and increasing emphasis on sustainable business practices could result in lower growth in 2024. While it is encouraging that many people continue to travel to the UK,


Deloitte’s ConsumerSignals data suggested consumers’ financial wellbeing declined in September and October 2023 after several consecutive months of growth. Consumers appeared to remain optimistic despite this, with 41% of those Deloitte surveyed expecting an improvement in their finances in the 12 months ahead, up from 35% a year earlier. Whether the UK inbound travel sector can build on its strong growth in 2023 will depend on the extent to which this


optimism translates into travel spending. Q Ed Knight, director


purpose given Other/no


Arrivals last year neared 2019 levels and spending hit a record, but policy challenges remained


INBOUND TRIPS TO UK BY PURPOSE


FIGURE 73: 2019 purpose given Other/no 7%


30.5% VFR


40.9m


inbound trips


21% Business


2022-23* 8%


35% VFR


37.1m


inbound trips


17% Business


*July 2022-June 2023 Source: ONS


40% Holiday


41.5% Holiday


late lifting of travel restrictions, but VisitBritain forecast the Chinese market would recover sufficiently in 2024 to be the fourth-most valuable.


2024 FORECAST VisitBritain forecast 5% growth in overall visitor numbers in 2024 to 39.5 million, or 97% of the 2019 level, and a return to pre-pandemic levels by early 2025. It noted the global economy had


slowed in recent months, explaining: “This, plus the slowdown in recent inbound data, is the main reason why visits and real-terms spending are not forecast to recover to 2019 levels immediately. The eurozone economy has been sluggish throughout 2023 and is forecast to remain slow in early 2024. The US economy performed well in 2023 but consumer spending is forecast to be weaker in 2024.” Inbound association UKinbound


hailed 2023 as “a strong year” but noted: “Our competitors are doing better.” Chief executive Joss Croft suggested: “We had some significant success [in lobbying], with the government listening to our calls to allow school and youth groups to travel on ID cards rather than needing a passport – at the moment this just relates to France, but we hope to see the list expanded to other safe countries.” He argued the economic case for reintroducing VAT refunds on


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