Chairman’s Report Andrew Goddard, Chairman, Verification of Lubricant Specifications


At the end of last year the UK media reported a six month of consecutive decline in the sale of diesel cars. UK Government’s uncertainty about how to treat vehicles once classed as ‘the green option’ has led to consumer caution about buying cars that might be subject to higher taxation in future.


In July 2017 the UK Government declared that from 2040 sale of motor vehicles powered with internal combustion engines, Petrol or Diesel, would be banned. This followed similar announcements made by the French Government earlier that year. Even Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) followed suit with Volvo and more recently Jaguar Land-Rover announcing the end of petrol and diesel car sales from 2019 and 2020 respectively.


The impact on the automotive sector, its fuel and lubricant sales, as electric vehicle sales increase cannot be underestimated.


Barclays’ analysts reported that if electric cars with greater efficiency increased to one third of the current automotive sector this would cut global oil consumption by 3.5 million barrels a day by 2025. This is roughly the equivalent of Iran’s current supply at 3.8 million barrels a day which is the Organisation of Exporting Petroleum Countries (OPEC)‘s third largest member.


Globally demand for oil is still growing. In their 2017 outlook OPEC signalled that the medium-term demand for oil for the period 2016–2022 would increase by 6.9 million barrels a day, rising from 95.4 million barrels in 2016 to around 102.3 million barrels a day by 2022. Developing countries are expected to account for the majority of this increase, with demand expected to increase from these countries by 43.2 million barrels a day in 2016 to 49.6 million barrels a day by 2022.


A cut in automotive demand for oil would effectively wipe out half the expected increase in global oil demand by 2022. But the demand for oil would still increase.


Transportation will remain the largest consumer of oil products, both fuel and lubricants, well into 2040. Much of the sector faces weak competition from


66 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.143 FEBRUARY 2018


alternate sources of fuel and lubricants although improved efficiencies, the rise of hybrid or electric vehicles and a tightening of energy policies will help to decelerate increases in demand.


Details of the French and UK Governments’ decision to ban conventional internal combustion engine vehicles is still vague. Will hybrid vehicles still be allowed, what about Heavy Goods Vehicles or diesel powered public vehicles such as taxis? Some analysts believe that Governments might have kicked an emissions issue aligned to air quality, into the long grass. The UK faced with the prospect of fines by the European Union for poor air quality in its cities, needed to be seen to be doing something.


Today’s vehicles are cleaner and leaner than those of ten or twenty years ago. Exhaust after treatment devices, both catalytic converters and diesel particulate filters, have removed many harmful gases. Car scrappage schemes promoted by both Government and car manufacturers have incentivised owners to replace ageing vehicles with more modern cars. Changes to car taxation duties rewards cars with lower emissions.


Electric cars might not be the panacea for everyone. Limited battery range and the high cost of lithium power cells means that extended ranges of some cars beyond 300 miles between recharges is not yet a reality. As local town runarounds or shopper cars, electric vehicles provide a viable alternative to conventional vehicles for journeys typified by short local stops. For longer commuter journeys then electric vehicles alone do not currently provide a realistic solution.


Much needed investment in electric charging stations along major motorway routes and trunk roads still remains in short supply. The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA) gave evidence to UK Government’s Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill Committee in November arguing against proposals to mandate electric vehicle charge points in petrol stations and motorway service areas. Although subsidies exist for domestic installation, the Bill proposes that a larger commercial network of charging points would be paid for by fuel retailers who would, by implication, pass the charges


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