EVENTS ICIS
World Base Oils 2018
Complexity has dogged the world’s base oils markets in 2017 and this is only set to increase in 2018. We’ve seen greater competition from more players in newer grades of base oils, unusual price trends (be it a huge range of prices for Group III, widening spreads between grades or volatile price moves), changing regulations, and not to mention the challenges of electrification in transport amid growing government emphasis on electric vehicles turning the transport sector on its head.
This is the complicated backdrop for the 22nd ICIS World Base Oils & Lubricants Conference taking place in February, which attracts hundreds of industry decision makers to London each year.
2018’s theme ‘Modelling the future: How will the industry deal with declining lubricant demand?’ is the perfect springboard for digging into what all these changes will mean for refiners, blenders, additive companies and consumers.
Competition and change Consolidation in Group I in the last couple of years has been the eventual catalyst for a several-month- long spike in European prices in 2017. It brought into sharp focus the question of what grades could supplement traditional Group I needs, and how soon.
INFINEUM’s session on the changing Group II landscape in Europe will ask what the impact on Group I production in Europe will be, and what Group II will displace. This is a neat follow up from Ted Walko of ExxonMobil’s fervent keynote speech last year, when the executive broadcast their ambitions for Group II to become a “workhorse” of the base oils world within the next decade. All eyes will be on the US oil major’s new Rotterdam plant, currently under construction, for signs of what might be in store for the European market dynamic in future.
Meanwhile, competition is already heating up in the Group III market, and the ripple effect is well underway. It will be fascinating to hear from NESTE’s
56 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.143 FEBRUARY 2018
Chris Castanien, Technical Services Manager for Americas, on the increasingly complex market, what are the new sources of supply and any commercial and technical impacts from new Group III supply. Later, Denis Varaksin who is Director for Base Oil and Slack Waxes at DYM RESOURCES will talk through the new wave of Russian base oil and its impact on the European and global landscape.
Time for R&R? Spotlight on rules and regulations Government regulations and specific demands from car makers are another diversion on the road to the future. New rules from the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) under its MARPOL marine fuel specifications are an impending deadline for the shipping industry, and Chevron Oronite’s Dick Wolpert will speak about marine fuel’s role in the global base oils and lubricants market, and the type of new lubricants formulations required to meet the regulations.
In the quest for quality and consistency, another session on synthetic basestocks and the ever-increasing drive to low viscosity will discuss how automotive OEM requirements are driving the move to PAOs, whether Group III is a viable alternative and whether there is enough to go round.
Electric and self-driving vehicles – disruptors driving change
Added to all of this, is the entrance of what are dubbed ‘disruptive technologies’ with the potential to usher in a world of declining lubricant demand, prominent examples being electric and hybrid vehicles and self-driving or autonomous cars.
Prodded by global concerns for the environment, climate change and the need to boost air quality, a string of car manufacturers are now queueing up to unveil new electric models, from the glamorous (the likes of Porsche’s electric Sedan due in 2019), the day-to-day (Nissan Leaf or the latest generation of Toyota Prius) to the business-minded (Tesla’s semi-electric trucks).
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