The market is still very small in comparative terms: bio-lubricants constitute only around 1% of the global finished lubricants market, roughly estimated at 39.6 million tons in 2016. However, the market potential is there. Kline estimates the bio-lubricants market will grow at a compound average growth rate of 5% during the next five years. North America and Asia-Pacific will still be the regions with the strongest growth. The estimated rate of expansion for bio-lubricants in Europe is set to eclipse the assumed rate of growth for finished lubricants in the continent, and bio-lubricant penetration of the European finished lubricant market is estimated to reach 5% in the next five years.
Several factors influence the growth forecast: both the VGP in the United States and the EU Ecolabel are up for review next year. The main change in the VGP is related to extending the list of compliant vessels to include vessels smaller than 79 feet or 24 metres in length, while the EU Ecolabel scheme might be subjected to major adjustments in an attempt to expand the visibility of EU Ecolabel products in Europe. However, these conclusions are far from certain, and bio-lubricant producers cannot rely on
legislative support alone. Regulatory developments can be a prelude to growth, but the onus is on blenders, who will need to keep developing both relevant products and customer interest, especially when mineral lubricants continue to have significant cost advantage over bio-lubricants. Regulation by itself, without the relevant enforcement, will not drive the sector; attractive products with the right combination of price and performance will.
LINK
www.klinegroup.com
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