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www.us-tech.com


Tech-Op-ed September, 2018 SOUNDING OFF


By Michael Skinner Editor


UBI: The Antidote to Automation?


B


y 2050, roughly 30 percent of all modern American jobs could be elimi- nated by automation — and this is being conservative. The remaining 70 percent is likely to be changed significantly, with no job escaping


completely untouched. According to a study by researchers at Oxford University, some of the


first jobs to go will be data entry keyers, new accounts clerks, tax preparers, and telemarketers. With automated driving around the corner and robotics on the rise, drivers’ jobs are at risk, along with freight workers and other trans- portation employees. The same study also found that some of the jobs least likely to be auto-


mated include engineers, doctors, surgeons, psychologists and social workers, artists, and other professions that rely heavily on human interaction, abstract problem solving and creative inspiration. Even these professions, however, will be changed by the tools and computer systems available to boost produc- tivity and improve organization. Looking far into the future, we may be headed to an entirely post-work


society, where our systems and machines provide us everything we need to live comfortably, and we are free to choose any day-to-day pursuits we like. While farfetched, some solutions have been already proposed, such as shorter work weeks and a universal basic income (UBI). Unlike a negative income tax, where a government stipend is gradually


lessened as a worker makes more money, UBI is an unconditional payout to all citizens in a society regardless of employment and tax status. This is not a new idea: Thomas Moore, in his 1551 book Utopia, argued that the perfect so- ciety would supply all people with a guaranteed income. In the 18th century, American revolutionary Thomas Paine supported a state-run welfare system that would also provide everyone with a certain income. In 1969, U.S. President Richard Nixon proposed a bill that would have


implemented a basic income for poor American families. In Brazil, Bolsa Fa- milia is a similar guaranteed income system in which poor families are given an income, but their children are obligated to attend school. Today, Alaska has its own type of basic income, in place since 1982, which pays out dividends from its Alaska Permanent Fund to Alaskan residents. The state found that the poverty rate among Native Americans fell from 25 to 19 percent between 1980 and 1990 and sees a spike in spending and saving each time the divi- dends are distributed. An updated version of UBI is being trialed in the Swiss village of Rhein-


au, which plans to pay its residents around $2,500 a month. This experiment hopes to highlight the effects of an unconditional income on the employment of residents and was spearheaded by Rebecca Panian, a Swiss filmmaker. Proponents of UBI, including such high-powered entrepreneurs as Elon


Musk and Richard Branson, argue that a basic income provides a floor for even the poorest among us, while not discouraging those on welfare from working. If someone receives a state welfare check for $1,000 each month, and scrapes along on the poverty line, what incentive do they have to take a job that may pay $1,100 or $1,200 before taxes, take 40 hours a week, and leave them with well under $1,000 after being taxed? In this view, welfare is a cage that keeps the poor trapped. UBI, would offer even the poor the ability to take new job opportunities,


move to another area of the country, maintain a certain level of nutrition, and advance in society. This program would not only help the poor. Any mid-level worker with a miserable job could take the money and leave. For the rich, the money might not mean much, but to a middle-class employee or to someone very poor, it could open up a world of options. The tricky part is to bet on what most people would do with a guaranteed


basic income. It’s unlikely that the majority of people would simply quit work- ing, plunging the economy into a tailspin of drastically reduced productivity. People need to work. A job offers more than just a paycheck. It gives a sense of purpose, it offers challenges to be solved and it provides endless opportuni- ties to learn. UBI could, however, offer a range of opportunities to a huge number of


people, such as those who would like to work in a new field, go back to school or devote themselves entirely to a creative project. While UBI is by no means a panacea, it could be a band-aid in the early stages of a transition to a high- ly automated workforce. r


PUBLISHER’S NOTE


By Jacob Fattal Publisher


Reliable, Renewable Energy


T


he energy industry is steadily growing its adoption of renewable sources, but is hampered by storage capacity. While Moore’s Law has dictated the doubling of computing power every two years, over the last half-cen-


tury, battery technology has lagged behind, improving by about 3 percent year-over-year. A shifting focus toward electric vehicles and power generation, such as wind, water and solar energy is resulting in an array of new approach- es to battery technology, including new materials and processes. Lithium-ion batteries are notorious for their risk of explosion, and many


companies are developing alternatives that could end lithium-ion’s market monopoly. Once again, graphene, the wonder child of the tech and engineer- ing community, is being hailed as a solution. Because of graphene’s large sur- face area, the material is currently being developed into supercapacitors that are capable of charging electric vehicles. China’s Dongxu Optoelectronics has created a graphene supercapacitor


that holds the charge of a typical laptop battery, but can be recharged in min- utes rather than hours. Grabat, a Spanish company, has developed a graphene battery that can provide electric vehicles with the power to travel up to 500 miles on a single charge. This technology also charges and discharges 33 times faster than current lithium-ion batteries. Going a step further, using carbon-based supercapacitors and technologies


like 3D printing could enable batteries to be distributed throughout a device, rather than trapped in a battery pack. One company, NAWAShell, uses carbon nano-rods that can be coated onto both flexible and rigid materials. This could be used to store energy in an electric vehicle along the chassis, instead of in heavy packs, or a smartphone with a battery that is built into the case. Recently, I attended and covered the Battery Show in Novi, Michigan,


where I had a chance to see the booming battery industry up close. Advances in battery storage go hand-in-hand with the movement toward renewable en- ergy. For instance, the state of California set itself a target of generating 50 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2050. Better batteries could balance out the unevenness of sunshine for solar power or wind for wind farms. Reliability and sustainability are the two biggest benefits of renewable energy and battery storage. As customers need energy stored, companies will need to build the batteries, controllers and electrical distribution systems. A re- newed focus on renewables is good for both the environment and the electronics industry. r


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