632 Y. Liu et al.


surveys and the discovery of several new populations in China (Rivers & Wheeler, 2015; Rivers et al., 2016; Cai et al., 2017). Although genomic data can contribute to the knowledge and conservation of this threatened species at the genetic level (Cai et al., 2024; Liu et al., 2024), it is also crucial to understand the threats it faces and its conserva- tion status and potential distribution under current and fu- ture climate scenarios. Here we summarize the conservation status of M. lacei in China, predict its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios and discuss strategies for its conservation and management, especially with respect to the impacts of climate change.


Study area


Yunnan Province in south-west China covers an area of 394,100 km2, 4% of the total area of the country. Michelia lacei is mainly distributed in Yunnan Province, but is also found in northern Viet Nam and Myanmar. It is native to subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forests at alti- tudes of 1,000–1,800 m (Liu, 2002; Xia et al., 2008). Since 2014, we have extensively surveyed Yunnan Province every 12-months, finding a small number of M. lacei populations in south-east Yunnan (Fig. 1). In the field, Parakmeria yun- nanensis Hu, Cornus hongkongensis tonkinensis (W.P. Fang) Q.Y. Xiang, Magnolia balansae (A.DC.) Dandy, Vernicia fordii (Hemsl.) Airy Shaw and Alsophila costularis Baker are the main species associated with M. lacei.


Methods Bioclimatic variables


Investigation of conservation status and species distribution data


To gain a comprehensive understanding of the current con- servation status of M. lacei in China, in September 2022 we


To predict the potential present and future distribution of M. lacei, we used the 19 bioclimatic variables, with a reso- lution of 2.5 arcminutes, provided by WorldClim 2.1 (Fick & Hijmans, 2017). We used mean climate data


asked local forestry bureaus and residents near its known distribution sites if they had seen any individuals of M. lacei, and, if so, how many. We subsequently surveyed all locations in which the plant had been seen or recorded in the wild. For each individual located, we measured its height and diameter at breast height. Where height was ,1.3mor diameter at breast height was,2 cmwe recorded the plant as a seedling (Tang et al., 2011; Han et al., 2019;Tao et al., 2020). We documented geographical coordinates (using a GPS), fruiting status (yes/no), growth status (i.e. whether or not we observed pests and diseases, as these can destroy plant tissue, impacting development), com- panion species and whether the plant was in a protected area. We calculated and recorded the extent of occurrence and area of occupancy of M. lacei in China using the package ConR (Dauby et al., 2017)in R 4.0.3 (R Core Team, 2020). In addition to our field surveys, in October 2022 we


examined literature and herbarium records (FRPS, 2019; CNKI, 2023; CVH, 2023; POWO, 2023). In total, we ob- tained 60 records for M. lacei in China (53 from our surveys and seven earlier records). We mapped these data using ArcGIS 10.8 (Esri, USA), retaining only one record per km2 to eliminate spatial bias (Rather et al., 2021; Mkala et al., 2022), resulting in 18 locations of M. lacei for further analysis. We also investigated the ex situ conservation of M. lacei in Chinese botanical gardens by collating information on the institutions where it is cultivated, and data such as the growth, flowering and fruiting status of cultivated plants.


FIG. 1 Locations of Michelia lacei individuals recorded during this study.


Oryx, 2024, 58(5), 631–640 © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605323001783


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