CBRNeWORLD
Battelle have modelled food risk and the economic impact ©DoD
an integrated one. There are also projects that focus on risk, using the same sort of methods that prioritise.
GW: In terms of the BTRA, do you look for existing research, such as that done by the EPA on restoration of an underground, or the interagency biological restoration demonstration programme (
https://www.ncbi.nlm.
nih.gov/pubmed/21882966) etc, take the findings and feed them in for better economic resolution? Can you incorporate findings quickly as they turn up, or do bulky additions of data become too much once the system is running? PW: The data does change quite a bit, so we bring out updates every two to three years depending on the direction given by DHS senior management. We used to have big reports, and still do, but now we have these models in applications where our client can request changes and we can implement them. Larger
scale changes to the models take some time, unlike simply updating data. We have an economic consequence model looking at impact, and decon data is reviewed to better estimate cost; we can update that model in a matter of minutes, rerun the analysis and consider the results. Larger model changes could take a couple of months, but just changing data and doing an analysis only takes hours to days.
GW: In terms of the holy grail of risk analysis and modelling, what are you waiting for? What step change will bring the granularity? PW: We are working towards a couple of areas on this. One major step that isn’t difficult on the unclassified side, but is a challenge with the government, is getting it deployed to people that will use it. HPAC and JEM do a good job of sending it to people but a lot of these models use a lot of computations, so getting them
into people’s hands is a challenge. We are working on getting them on
unclassified networks. It doesn’t seem like it should be but going through all the needs is difficult as cyber is a big concern. Another one is adversary modelling. Previously we did a lot of elicitations with the intelligence community, who are busy people, so trying to model what they would do is also a big thing. So we have been looking at what is more important, is it killing them, scaring them, what are easy vs hard tasks? We are trying to parameterise that space and find out what is important. We are also working towards an explosive terrorism risk assessment, and that is an area with a lot of data, unlike other areas which are low data. We are trying to get a stronger foundation of what has happened and compare it with other assessments to make things as predictable and real as possible.
www.cbrneworld.com CBRNe Convergence, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Indiana, USA, 6 - 8 Nov 2017
www.cbrneworld.com/convergence2017
June 2017 CBRNe WORLD
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