CBRNeWORLD
Patrick Wilson, principal research scientist at Battelle, talks to Gwyn Winfield about getting the model right
Yeah, that’s supposed to be left over…
GW: I’ve spent a long time writing on modelling and simulation and my problem with it is accuracy. Traditionally there is a paucity of cases, and when that is so we believe our models… yet when something happens like Amerithrax or Kim Jong-nam, and we consider the models, they don't look at all like models. Are they then only good for worst case scenarios? PW: One thing to be aware of is that our terrorist models are not focussed on assassination attempts, we are more focussed on the threat to the entire public, rather than one individual.
GW: I understand, but there is a difference between Kim in his own house and him in the middle of a departures lounge in a busy airport, the latter involves a threat to the public. It might be low intensity, but it is a threat. The invention of modellers never seems to match that of red force, which always has new methods of using known agents or doesn’t act as we expect. If you match those variables against [Battelle’s] chemical terrorism risk assessment (CTRA) probability trees it must build out to a level that makes it difficult to model with any comfort…
PW: That is a good point. A lot of our modelling does try and cover the full spectrum. We set up an indoor environment, which comes in different sizes from small to a mega structure, and we cover the amount of material, the particle size, etc. These scenarios are very broad, and need to estimate from small events as you mentioned up to the large ones – 100kg dispersed at a high visibility event, down to a handheld device and a single kilo. We try and cover the likelihood and consequences, how the medical service can respond and deal with casualties and the worried well, and also the economic impact.
GW: When you have so many outputs, such as economic impact, is it even worth trying to model the lower end of the system because it doesn’t really stress the whole machine. Even though a small event might be scary at the time, once you build out into the week to week it is minimal. Therefore mass is needed for modelling. Should the range
Battelle run a series of CBRN models for Federal agencies ©DoD
of activities bother with the insignificant or just focus on the national planning scenarios? PW: We do both. A lot of the time our clients have new information on small attacks, especially involving VIPs, and you want to plan those events so nothing happens to them. While we don’t do assassination events there are occasions that important people attend that raise questions, so we need to do special events as well. A lot of our consequence and medical modelling has been designed to take care of both scenarios, it is just about the impact parameters. The broader study that we do on a release follows broad plans, but there is time between those massive reports to do sensitivity studies, or events that need to be planned for.
GW: So is the modelling for states and local, or just federal agencies? PW: We work at the federal level, but we have had requests from states, and state and local law enforcement who want to interact, but a lot of the time it is the larger federal events. We have the capability
www.cbrneworld.com CBRNe Convergence, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Indiana, USA, 6 - 8 Nov 2017
www.cbrneworld.com/convergence2017
June 2017 CBRNe WORLD
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