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SUNDAY, AUGUST 1, 2010 Obama sent warning to Palestinian leader, PLO says by Karin Laub
ramallah, west bank — President Obama warned Mah- moud Abbas in a letter that U.S.- Palestinian relations might suffer if the Palestinian leader refuses to resume direct peace talks with Israel, a senior Palestine Libera- tion Organization official said Saturday. The White House had no com- ment Saturday. However, the Obama administration has been pushing Abbas hard in recent days to move quickly to face-to- face negotiations.
The PLO official said Obama sent the letter — the strongest U.S. warning to Abbas yet — on July 16.
Abbas insists he will only nego-
tiate once Israel commits to the idea of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusa- lem, with minor modifications. He also wants Israel to freeze all settlement construction in those areas. Israeli Prime Minister Binya-
min Netanyahu refuses to be pinned down ahead of talks and has put in place only a 10-month freeze on housing starts in the West Bank, which is to expire in
September. Last week, senior PLO mem- bers were briefed on the latest at- tempts to restart talks. During the meeting, an Abbas aide sum- marized the main points of Oba- ma’s letter, said the PLO official, who spoke on condition of ano- nymity because the letter has not been made public. “In this letter, Obama asked
Abu Mazen [Abbas] to go to di- rect negotiations and [wrote] that he can’t help the Palestinians unless they go to direct negotia- tions,” the official said. “Obama said he expects Abu Mazen to agree to this demand, and that
not accepting it would affect the relations between the Palestin- ians and the Americans.” Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat insisted the letter did not refer to Palestinian-U.S. ties. Erekat said Obama wrote that he remains committed to establish- ing a Palestinian state but that his ability to help will be limited if Abbas does not resume talks. Negotiations between Abbas and Netanyahu’s predecessor, Ehud Olmert, broke off in Decem- ber 2008. Palestinians are wary of resum- ing talks with Netanyahu without reaching agreement on an agen-
da, a timetable and a framework. Netanyahu has said he is eager to negotiate, but has refused to pick up where the last round left off and has said he will never relin- quish East Jerusalem, the Pales- tinians’ hoped-for capital. Since early May, White House
envoy George J. Mitchell has been shuttling between Abbas and Ne- tanyahu. Such indirect talks were to last for up to four months. Ab- bas’s aides have said they want the indirect talks to run their course before deciding whether to move to direct negotiations, but the White House wants to move to face-to-face talks now.
On Thursday, Arab foreign ministers meeting in Cairo en- dorsed the idea of direct talks, but left the timing up to Abbas. On Monday, the PLO’s top deci- sion-making body, the Executive Committee, will be asked to make a recommendation. “The Pales- tinians are between a rock and a hard place,” said committee member Hanan Ashrawi. She said public opinion in the
Palestinian territories opposes talks without ironclad guaran- tees but that Abbas would be blamed by the world if negotia- tions don’t get off the ground. — Associated Press
First phase of missile shield in Europe on track for 2011 missiles from A1
against a Soviet nuclear attack in his “Star Wars” speech in 1983. Its development accelerated during the George W. Bush administra- tion, which saw missile defense as a way to deter emerging nuclear powers in Iran and North Korea. It has expanded further under
President Obama, despite the skepticism he expressed during the 2008 campaign about the fea- sibility and affordability of Bush’s plan for a shield in Europe. In September, Obama an- nounced that he was changing Bush’s approach. Instead of aban- doning the idea, he directed the Pentagon to construct a far more extensive and flexible missile de- fense system in Europe that will be built in phases between now and 2020. The missile defense plan for Europe has factored into the Sen- ate’s debate over a new U.S.-Rus- sia arms reduction treaty that would place fresh limits on the two countries’ nuclear arsenals. Russia has strongly opposed the European shield, and some Re- publican lawmakers have charged that the treaty could constrain the project. Obama administration officials have dismissed the con- cerns.
Ships add mobility
Since last year, the Navy has been deploying Aegis-class de- stroyers and cruisers equipped with ballistic missile defense sys- tems to patrol the Mediterranean Sea. The ships, featuring octago- nal Spy-1 radars and arsenals of Standard Missile-3 interceptors, will form the backbone of Oba- ma’s shield in Europe. Unlike fixed ground-based in- terceptors, which were the main- stay of the Bush missile defense plan for Europe, Aegis ships are mobile and can easily move to areas considered most at risk of attack.
Another advantage is that Aegis ships can still be used for other missions, such as hunting pirates or submarines, instead of waiting for a missile attack that may never materialize. “It’s very easily absorbed,” Capt.
Mark Young, commanding officer of the Vella Gulf, a Ticonderoga- class cruiser now deployed to the Mediterranean, said of his ship’s
new missile defense role. “We’re very capable, and we’ll find a way to advance the mission.” “The system has to be able to
operate to its utmost,” Young said in an interview in the Vella Gulf wardroom as the ship left the East Coast. “We’ve told our junior guys, ‘This is not just another Aegis ship. It’s a BMD platform.’ There’s no margin for error.” Navy commanders said they
have just one or two Aegis ships patrolling the eastern Mediterra- nean at a time. Pentagon officials said those numbers could even- tually triple, with three on deploy- ment and three more as relief ships, depending on the perceived threat from Iran. The numbers may sound small,
but lawmakers are concerned that the demand for Aegis ships world- wide could strain the Navy. In addition to Europe, the U.S.
Central Command in the Middle East and the U.S. Pacific Com- mand require Aegis ships for bal- listic missile defense against po- tential threats from Iran and North Korea. Only about half the Navy’s Aegis fleet is available at any given time; after deployment at sea, ships generally spend an equivalent period at their home ports so their crews can prepare for the next mission. As a result, the Obama admin-
istration has plans to nearly dou- ble its number of Aegis ships with ballistic missile defenses, to 38 by 2015.
Vice Adm. Henry B. Harris Jr., commander of the U.S. 6th Fleet, based in Naples, Italy, said an op- tion would be to assign some Ae- gis ships to home ports in Europe instead of making them sail con- stantly back and forth to the Unit- ed States. “It’s certainly something that’s on the table,” Harris told report- ers in June. Other Navy officials have floated the idea of flying in fresh crews so a ship could more or less deploy continuously, obvi- ating the need for long breaks.
Iranian ‘salvo’ threat U.S. military officials and ana-
lysts say it’s easy to dream up a nightmare scenario over the fu- ture of Iran’s nuclear program, which Western powers fear is aimed at the development of a nu- clear weapon and which Iran in- sists is entirely peaceful. In an at-
Gathering defenses
Te first phase of the U.S. military’s missile defense shield for Europe is on track to become operational in 2011. Te Pentagon says the largely sea-based system, to be expanded in stages through 2020, will be more flexible and comprehensive than the George W. Bush administration’s plan to rely solely on land-based interceptors. It is designed to cover the entire European continent by 2018 and to be able to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles, capable of reaching the United States, by 2020.
1
Forward-based X-band radar, probably in Turkey or Bulgaria, could detect short- or medium-range missiles launched from Iran.
X-band radar
band radar 2
Launch detection is relayed to U.S. Navy Aegis-class destroyers and cruisers patrolling the eastern Mediterranean and Black seas. Te ships are armed with SM-3 interceptors, designed to destroy enemy missiles above the atmosphere.
SPAIN ITALYITALY BULGARIA
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BULGARIA Athens
ISRAELISRAEL a 1 2 IRAQ EGYPT
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Tehran IRAN
and link up with the high-power radar planned for southern Eu- rope. In 2015, the next phase will be- gin. Romania has agreed to host a land-based Aegis combat system on its territory. In 2018, the system will expand
Atlantic Ocean
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Strike area of a medium-range ballistic missile fired from Iran.
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New Delhi
INDIA CHINA
further with another land-based Aegis system in Poland, as well as a new generation of SM-3 in- terceptors and additional sensors. The shield is scheduled to become complete by 2020, with the addi- tion of even more advanced SM-3s. Until last year, the Pentagon had thought an arsenal of 147 SM-3s would be sufficient for its missile defenses worldwide. Now, the Obama administration is looking to nearly triple that num- ber, to 436, by 2015.
U.S. foots most of bill
The Pentagon says the purpose of the European missile defense system is threefold: to protect Eu- rope, to protect U.S. forces sta- tioned there and to deter Iran from further development of its missile program. It “will help us more effectively
2011 PHASE 1 PHASE 1
X-band radar becomes operational, links to Aegis ships.
d d SOURCE: Staff reports
tempt to disable the program, Is- rael launches a pre-emptive attack. The Iranians retaliate with a wave of conventional missiles, not just against Israel, but also U.S. forces stationed in Europe and the Middle East. “If Iran were actually to launch
a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn’t be just one or two mis- siles, or a handful,” Defense Secre- tary Robert M. Gates said at a con- gressional hearing in June. “It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles.” Such an attack could have “rap- idly overwhelmed” the Bush mis- sile defense shield for Europe, Army Lt. Gen. Patrick J. O’Reilly, director of the Defense Depart-
2015 PHASE 2
Land-based Aegis combat system added in Romania.
b dA HASE 2
2018 PHASE 3 i PHASE 3
Land-based Aegis unit added in Poland. All of Europe now covered.
2020 PHASE 4
Advanced SM-3s added, capable of intercepting ICBMs aimed at U.S.
M3 d PHASE 4
CRAIG WHITLOCK, CRISTINA RIVERO AND LARIS KARKLIS/THE WASHINGTON POST
ment’s Missile Defense Agency, said in an interview. The Bush plan would have con- sisted of only 10 ground-based in- terceptors in Poland and a large radar installation in the Czech Re- public. It was designed to shoot down long-range or even inter- continental ballistic missiles fired by Iran against Europe or the United States. Subsequent U.S. intelligence as- sessments concluded that Iran’s efforts to build a long-range mis- sile were moving slowly. Today, military officials estimate it would take Iran until 2015 at the earliest, and only with the assis- tance of another country, to de- ploy an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States. Even then, military
THE ESTÉE LAUDER DREAM EVENT
officials said, Iran would probably need much more time to build a reliable arsenal of ICBMs, which can be highly inaccurate in the early stages of development. In contrast, Iran already has a
large inventory of missiles with a range of up to 1,200 miles — put- ting southeastern Europe at risk. And it is pushing hard to reach other parts of the continent. In response, Obama an- nounced in September that the Pentagon would scrap Bush’s sys- tem for Europe and replace it with what he called a “phased, adaptive approach.” The first phase officially becomes opera- tional next year. Aegis ships, armed with dozens of SM-3 mis- sile interceptors, will patrol the Mediterranean and Black seas
defend the country, more effec- tively defend our forces in Eu- rope, and with our allies more ef-
“If you have more than one opportunity to shoot at a missile, you get very high levels of probability of success.”
— Army Lt. Gen. Patrick J. O’Reilly, Missile Defense Agency
fectively defend both their forces and populations and ultimately their territory of Europe as the system expands,” said James N. Miller, principal deputy under- secretary of defense for policy. It is a good deal for Europe, which is largely getting the pro- tection for free. NATO allies, how- ever, may eventually plug their own, more limited missile defense systems into the overall shield. The Pentagon says countries
that are providing territory for ra- dar and ground interceptors will probably make financial contri- butions as negotiations are final- ized. But otherwise, U.S. taxpay- ers will be footing the bill. U.S. de- fense officials said it is difficult to provide an overall estimate on what it will cost to build and oper- ate the European shield, given that the Aegis ships and other components either already exist or were going to be built anyway by the U.S. military. The system will require an unspecified num- ber of new SM-3 missiles, which cost between $10 million and $15 million apiece. In November, during a summit in Lisbon, NATO members will vote on whether to make territori- al missile defense part of the alli- ance’s overall mission. If that happens, allies will even- tually connect their localized mis- sile defense systems — mainly Pa- triot missiles and other ground- based interceptors — to the larger framework. The United States and NATO would also have to sort out a unified command-and-con- trol system, which could take years, officials said.
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O’Reilly said combined defens- es would feature the best of both worlds: an “upper layer” frame- work of SM-3 and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, interceptors, operated by the United States, that could shoot down enemy missiles in space or the upper atmosphere; and a “lower layer” of Patriot bat- teries, operated by European al- lies, providing a second layer of defense closer to the ground. “If you have more than one op-
portunity to shoot at a missile,” O’Reilly said, “you get very high levels of probability of success.”
whitlockc@washpost.com
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