FRIDAY, JUNE 18, 2010
KLMNO
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Economy & Business A23 Rise in jobless claims and fall in consumer prices likely to keep interest rates low Reuters
New claims for jobless aid rose last week and consumer prices notched their largest decline in nearly 11
⁄2 years in May, suggest-
ing that interest rates will re- main ultra low to nurse the fra- gile economic recovery. Initial claims for state unem- ployment benefits increased 12,000, to 472,000, last week as
manufacturing, construction and education sectors shed workers, the Labor Department said Thursday. Analysts had ex- pected claims to fall to 450,000. In a second report, the depart- ment said the consumer price in- dex — a closely watched inflation gauge — fell 0.2 percent last month, the largest drop since De- cember 2008, after dipping 0.1 percent in April. This came as gasoline prices fell by the most in
17 months. “The economy may be expand-
ing, but at a pace that isn’t in- spiring, and any concerns about upward price pressure for U.S. consumers in the near term are dissipating,” said Jim Baird, chief investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. Fears that growth is slowing were underscored by the Phila- delphia Federal Reserve Bank’s business activity index, which
dropped to 8.0 this month, from 21.4 in May. That was well below expectations of 20.9. A reading above zero indicates expansion in the region’s manufacturing. Analysts expect the recovery to be moderate in the second half of 2010, as a boost fades from a re- building of business inventories and the government stimulus. “We are seeing that now. It is slowing as the temporary lifts from the stimulus and invento-
ries recede, but not something that is consistent with a contrac- tion of the economy,” said Keith Hembre, chief economist at First American Funds.
With unemployment still high and inflation pressures muted, the Federal Reserve is expected to extend its pledge to hold over- night interest rates exceptionally low for “an extended period” when policymakers meet Tues- day and Wednesday.
The U.S. central bank is not ex-
pected to lift rates, currently near zero, until next year. Last month, core inflation, which ex- cludes the volatile energy and food prices and is closely watched by Fed officials — edged up 0.1 percent after being flat in April. In the 12 months to May, the
core rate rose 0.9 percent after increasing by the same margin in April.
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