TECH TALK
to as Moon 2.0). Five competing teams have each secured a contract to launch their spacecraft: SpaceIL, Moon Express, Synergy Moon, Team Indus and Hakuto. (A total of 16 teams have entered.) They are now authorized to move forward in the challenge, kicking off the next exciting phase of the competition — landing on the freakin’ moon! As an example of how private companies are now leading the way in the U.S., Moon Express has secured formal approval from the U.S. government to land on the Moon in 2017. Moon Express’ MX-1 robotic spacecraft will usher in a new era of commercial lunar exploration and discovery, potentially unlocking the immense potential of the moon’s valuable resources. Moon Express received the green light in August for pursuing its 2017 lunar mission following in depth consultations with the FAA, the White House, the State Department, NASA and other federal agencies. The main goal of the maiden launch is to test out the MX-1’s performance and capability on the lunar surface, as well as win the Google Lunar X-Prize. The first team to pull off this landing and move a vehicle at least 1,640 feet (500 meters) on the lunar surface, as well as transmit high-definition video back to Earth, will receive the $20 million grand prize. The second team to achieve all of this gets $5 million, and another $5 million is available for meeting other milestones. There are further prizes for more accomplishments. Other companies are attacking near-earth orbit, asteroid mining, Mars missions and space tourism. Some of the most well-funded start-ups include SpaceX (you know about them); Blue Origin, the start- up founded by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos; Kymeta, a Bill Gates-backed company that sells small satellite antennas to expand connectivity around the world; OneWeb, which uses satellites
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to provide high-speed internet access; and satellite-builder Planet Labs, which designs and manufactures Triple-CubeSat micro-satellites called Doves that are then delivered into orbit as passengers on other missions. A January 2016 report from
aerospace consulting firm the Tauri Group found that space start-ups have attracted more than $13.3 billion of investment, including $5.1 billion of debt financing, since 2000. Nearly two-thirds of that investment funding has come in the last five years. After a ~40 year lag, the next few
years will be a veritable wave of spacecraft heading to the moon. Buy your lunar real estate there now, as prime locations will be snapped up soon. No word on the rumor of ‘The Trump Lunar Golf Club’ being in the works is true or not. (Full disclosure for all of the fake news sites out there, I just made this up. Do not broadcast this.) Trump has also voiced support
for further human exploration of the entire solar system by the end of the century, most probably in conjunction with private companies. There are already companies working on space hotels, asteroid mining and space tourism. Expect that all of the current existing efforts to continue to be supported.
COMMERCIAL AVIATION Many air transport-related lobby groups have reacted to Trump’s election with optimism. Nearly all of the major trade association have expressed optimism on having their agendas moved forward. There will be disappointments here, as many of these have competing agendas. Besides the potential privatization
of the ATC, another significant issue will be the simmering drama between the large U.S. carriers and the Gulf carriers, which Delta, U.S. Airways and American accuse of receiving illegal state aid. While this has been settled for now here in the U.S., the
battle has shifted over to Europe, where the European Commission has a mandate to try to negotiate an open skies agreement with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as other countries.
This is a long story, which has been hashed out in many publications over the years, but let’s summarize it by saying that is has split various U.S. travel and air transport companies against one another. This has even caused a rift in the U.S. airline lobby, with some carriers backing the Gulf airlines for various reasons. This is close to being a ‘zero sum game’, where someone has to lose for others to gain, and it is not clear exactly who would gain if this battle re- emerges. With Trumps’ America First trade policy approach, we could see this re-visited. The other key factor is that the Gulf carriers in question have billions of dollars in orders with Boeing, and include launch orders for the new 777X. In the past year, airlines have begun to experience the typical cyclical downturn as revenue growth has slowed. Part of this is due to a strengthening U.S. dollar, which has allowed foreign airlines to reduce their prices in dollars, and this trend may continue to put pressure on air transport yields for U.S. carriers and cargo companies (and driving revenue share on lucrative international routes to non-U.S. carriers). The increases in labor costs and oil prices trending up have also not helped the airlines. There is not much that a Trump administration can do with this, due to the cyclical nature of air transport and the oil market. Due to Open Skies agreements, by which U.S. carriers have benefited greatly in the past, we cannot simply limit foreign airlines from our shores (which is good for consumers by expanding competition and keeping a lid on prices). Globalization is alive and well in the air transport market, and not much should change here.
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