TECH TALK
have already seen Trump attack Boeing and Lockheed regarding their pricing on two key programs, creating concerns in the industry that public attacks will become the norm if Trump perceives that a contract is not priced well. During the campaign, Trump had called for eliminating the sequester on defense spending and to boost troop levels as well as the number of aircraft and ships, specifically calling for 100 more fighters. Details of how this will be implemented have not been released yet, but one of his senior campaign aides said eliminating the sequester would amount to a roughly $500 billion reinvestment over 10 years back in September.
The final point to keep in mind is that the first defense budget from Trump would be for fiscal 2019 (which starts on Oct. 1, 2018), so most defense firms would not experience any significant upsurge in revenues until 2019. This uptick could be dampened by Congress if the federal deficit climbs too much due to possible new tax laws.
NASA AND OTHER
GOVERNMENT RESEARCH Trump has nominated Mick Mulvaney, a South Carolina congressman, to be his budget director. In the past, Mulvaney has questioned whether the federal government should spend any money on government-funded research. (His initial comment was aimed at research on combatting the Zika virus, but also questioned the need for any government-funded research at all.) If he passes confirmation by the Senate, many agencies that perform aviation- and space-related research will have to wait to learn if this has any potential impact on their research programs. With Trump’s stated intent to have public-private partnerships, including for space efforts, this will
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be one of the more controversial nominations facing any technology or scientific-focused agency with far- reaching economic impacts over time. Backers of NASA and DARPA will be lobbying Trump if any sacred cows are being led to slaughter. Expect fireworks here.
SPACE Two of Trump’s senior policy advisors, Robert S. Walker and Peter Navarro, have stated that government funding in heavy-lift launch and International Space Station operations could be replaced by private-sector investments. We already have SpaceX and Blue Origin working on reusable heavy-lift launch vehicles, either of which may replace the ULA-Atlas- Russian-engine rockets, so this type of public-private partnerships fostered by the Obama administration will be expanded. Having more competition in the lift market will benefit the government and the nascent commercial space industry. The issue of using of Russian-
derived RD-180 engines for Atlas rockets in the United Launch Alliance (ULA) program for the Pentagon. In December 2015 the U.S. Congress imposed a ban on the use of these engines after 2019, amid worsening relations with Russia, which was later rescinded when it became clear that the United States would be unable to easily replace these with domestically-developed engines in time to meet the self-imposed deadline. Expect this to be a political negotiating point with Russia in the near future. Trump is expected to significantly
cut or redirect funding of NASA’s earth science initiatives (which began under George H.W. Bush), including climate monitoring, while upgrading our space-based defenses against foreign attempts to degrade American intelligence satellites. In a recent interview performed by the Guardian
newspaper, Bob Walker, a former congressman and Trump’s space policy adviser, indicated that NASA’s Earth-monitoring programs may be reduced or shifted to other agencies, possibly to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (which would need congressional approval). Trump has already verbalized his position on reducing anything related to climate change, so expect this project to bear the consequences. Due to the military’s increased
reliance on GPS, satellite communication and spy satellites, and their vulnerabilities, expect changes. Both Russia and China and have the capabilities to attack our satellites. (China has already demonstrated this on one of their own satellites to prove the point.) The U.S. and other countries have all been experimenting with launching fleets of micro-satellites to replace larger, more vulnerable satellites already. Trump’s team has indicated that this is an area of interest, so expect increased funding for efforts that are already underway. A new space race is already ongoing, with China leading the way. Chang’e 3, which includes a lander and rover, successfully landed on the moon in late 2013. China plans to attempt a manned mission to the moon, which could happen by 2030. In 2018, China will make history when it lands a spacecraft on the dark side of the moon. All the U.S. can do is keep watching one of our rovers keep road-tripping around Mars (a great accomplishment and a further move than China imitating the U.S. lunar efforts from the early 1970s) and exploring the rest of the solar system (those pics of Pluto will give our scientists something to study for years to come).
The moon is not only the main target for China, but for a number of private commercial companies, some of which are driven by the Google Lunar XPRIZE (sometimes referred
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