EMPIRICAL RESULTS 47 Spillover Effects of Fadama II
We examined the spillover effects of Fadama II by comparing income changes of beneficiaries with those of nonbeneficiaries living in and outside commu- nities participating in Fadama II (Figures 5.3 and 5.4). The results show no significant difference between the income changes of Fadama II beneficiaries and nonbeneficiaries living in the same community. We also compared the changes in income of nonbeneficiaries in Fadama II LGAs with those of non- beneficiaries outside Fadama II LGAs. Treating nonbeneficiaries in Fadama II as a treatment group (stemming from spillover effects) and nonbenefi- ciaries outside Fadama II LGAs as the control group, we computed the PSM and matched the two groups. As expected, results show that there was posi- tive spillover of the program on the incomes of nonbeneficiaries in Fadama II LGAs (Table 5.9). Overall, the income of nonbeneficiaries increased by 18 percent because of spillover effects, but the increase was not significant at p = 0.10. The largest (and significant) spillover was observed in the moist savannah zone—where the absolute value of ATT of income was greatest.
Figure 5.4 Impact of participation in Fadama II on household income of beneficiaries compared with control groups
Notes:
ATT and the corresponding percentage change refer to the change in income resulting from participation in Fadama II compared with the corresponding group of nonbeneficiaries. Thus these values should not be interpreted as the change in income of the corresponding control group of nonbeneficiaries. ATT, average effect of the treatment on the treated; FII, Fadama II; LGA, local government authority.
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