42 CHAPTER 5
proportionate to the increase in productive assets from September 2005 (at the beginning of project implementation) to September 2006 (the date for measuring changes in productive assets after project start), because many of the investments in productive assets occurring between September 2005 and September 2006 may not have come soon enough to affect agricultural production and income during the 2005–06 production year. We would expect the full effects of those assets acquired by September 2006 to be felt during 2006–07. Further research on the impacts of Fadama II is needed to more fully assess income changes resulting from the project.
The effects of Fadama II varied across the three major agroecological zones of Nigeria (Table 5.7). The project had a significant impact (at p = 0.10) in the dry savannah zone, where participation in the project led to an average increase in income of 79 percent. Increase in the absolute ATT value was also greatest in this zone. Corresponding results of the unmatched sample also showed significant impact of Fadama II only in the dry savannah zone, where income increased by 60 percent (Table 5.8). In the humid forest and moist savannah zones, the changes in net income resulting from participation in the project were positive but smaller than in the dry savannah zone and not statistically significant. The large net increase in income in the dry savan- nah zone, where limited rainfall is a major problem, could be explained by
Table 5.7 Impact of Fadama II on household income across agroecological zones, gender, and asset terciles (matched sample)
Net real annual household income (nairas)
Characteristic / treatment type Before FIIa
Agroecological zone Humid forest zone FII beneficiaries (n = 176)
All nonbeneficiaries (n = 282)
Moist savannah zone FII beneficiaries (n = 118)
All nonbeneficiaries (n = 251)
Dry savannah zone FII beneficiaries (n = 205)
All nonbeneficiaries (n = 335) After FIIa ATTb
Net change due to
participationc (%)
87,431
(292,102) 12,307
(257,170) 70,578
(203,342) 96,498
(258,137) 79,113
(255,967) 106,066
(255,201)
112,626
(299,102) 14,963 17.1 31,343
(276,530) 74,295
(280,596) 33,522 47.5 77,384
(271,796) 124,458
(225,341) 142,708
(254,173) 62,664*/†† 79.2
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