Pick A Winner Take a Dip
Understanding wagering pools is key to forecasting potential payoffs.
T
he excitement at the racetrack never wanes and often provides educational opportunities as well.
Such an afternoon took place on St. Patrick’s Day, March 17, at Remington Park. Twice during the 10-race program, someone at an off-track simulcast location in another state decided to play some big win wagers on more than one horse in the same race. The bets appeared to be worth between $1,000 and $2,000, ascertained from watching the win wagering-pool totals that cycle on the television feed of the races. This information can also be seen on the in- house track channel that features only the pari-mutuel pools and odds for win, place and show wagers and, usually, exacta plays. The “Mad Bomber,” nicknamed by a few of us in
the press box when the heavy action went down, didn’t appear to have an eye for past performances. It seemed this player was simply gambling on longshot horses that had not shown much penchant for winning, hoping to cash big if they managed to defy their history presented in the program. The result was horses that definitely factored and should have been represented on the tote board by lower odds to win actually went off at much higher prices. In the fourth race of the day, the winner—who, in my opinion, should have been no higher than 4-1, or a $10 payoff, at the most—went off at 11-1 and paid $24.20 to win. Those who liked the winner and bet their $2 received a great return, much like an unex- pected gift from Santa at Christmas or, in this case, the Mad Bomber on St. Patrick’s Day. However, the Mad Bomber was only interested in wild win bets, not exactas. The $24.20 winner, when coupled with the second-place horse, who went off at 12-1 win odds due to the bizarre inflation, only paid $24.60 for the exacta. Conspiracy theories were imme- diately presented, surprisingly by many regulars at the track.
I was somewhat shocked at the outrage from fans that come out on a regular basis. They were upset the exacta paid so little for horses that carried win odds of 11-1 and 12-1, respectively. What they forgot, or pos- sibly did not know, is that the exacta pool is completely separate from the win wager pool. All wagers—win,
place, show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, pick three, daily double, etc.—carry their own separate pool of bet money from which the payoffs for each are calcu- lated and distributed. The money paid out is minus the takeout percentage for the specific wager, from which state taxes, track fees and horsemen’s purse money originate. Basically, the Mad Bomber affected the win wager pools with the large bets, driving the odds higher on horses that definitely figured to be skilled to win while pushing the odds on his longshot horses down. He did not affect the exacta pool odds, however, because no bet was made on that wager. Therefore, the payoff was more reflective of the abili- ties of the first- and second- place horses in the race. How the win pool was
skewed is simple. During the St. Patrick’s Day card, the total money in the combined win-place-show pools ranged from $4,000 to $9,000 throughout the day, with the exception of the two races in which the Mad Bomber took part. In
By Dale Day, Remington Park announcer and handicapper
@thedaleday
those races, the combined win-place-show pools were between $17,000 and $18,000 with the Mad Bomber’s money comprising the bulk of the pools. If Remington Park’s win-place-show pools that day had been in the $50,000-range every race, the Mad Bomber’s plays would still have influence on the odds—every bet does—but not as drastically. The end result was that the Mad Bomber lost his
money. None of his longshot horses won their races in which the big money was played, but he did provide Santa-like pari-mutuel win gifts to those who correctly bet on the winners in the two races in which he was a generous participant.
Dale Day is a special contributor for Paint Horse Racing. To comment on this article, email
feedback@apha.com.
PAINT HORSE RACING MAY 2013 7
COURTEST DALE DAY
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