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SURVEY Industry forecast


expectation for that time of the year as the economic slowdown had affected consumer demand for mobile phones and consumer electronics. According to the latest HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index, US manufacturing has gained strength as China’s factory output has slowed, although new export orders received by US-based companies are indicating a weaker external demand. Eastern Europe, which had been hard


hit by the 2008-09 financial crisis and recession, is vulnerable to its richer neighbours. Countries like Hungary and


Slovakia depend heavily on the Eurozone for trade and capital. Fears are that a lack of investment from the major European economies will prevent growth. The biggest drop in air cargo moving


to Europe has been seen on the Asia sector, reflecting the fall of demand for manufactured goods – this was down by 15 percent year-on-year in 2011. With consumers in the US and the Eurozone countries not spending as much as they previously did on imports, Asian exporters are seeing a big slump in sales to these areas. China is the world’s fastest-


growing economy and a report from aircraft manufacturer Boeing published last year found that the country’s emergence as a global player on the world stage had been accompanied by a GDP growth rate that averaged an astounding 10 percent annually over the past 30 years – and is expected to annually average over 7 percent growth through 2029. China is the largest import


market and third-largest export market for the United States – with the latter statistic illustrating the fact that a growing affluent


16 AIR LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT


middle class in China now has the cash to shop for imported foreign goods. As a manufacturing powerhouse,


China engages very actively in a processing and manufacturing trade in which the country imports raw materials and half-finished goods, processes them and exports finished products. With the imports required for this type of trade remaining moderate, future export growth is likely to wane. Nonetheless, China Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang remarked that the country’s exports “are still growing at a phenomenal rate, but slower”. Boeing’s 2009-


2010 Geopolitical Trends report observed that in the midst of the global economic crisis, China had the best chance to emerge positioned to challenge US economic dominance over the long term, but the survey acknowledged that the oil-driven economies of Russia and


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