SURVEY Industry forecast
Pearce
“Air freight is suffering more than other transport modes”
the middle of last year; EU and US trade by air with Asia and China has declined, as growth rates for exports slowed and imports fell; and imports from Asia by air have been falling since April 2011, both in the EU and the US. In the advanced economies, air freight
A number of growth‐ boosting policies have been agreed by member states of the EU
demand remains slow and the latest data on imports by air indicate a further weakening of demand virtually across the board. Only German imports seem to have resisted an otherwise downward trend, OECD noted. A number of growth-boosting policies
have been agreed by member states of the EU, but not all have been implemented in the face of the downswing. The European countries need to remove some of the existing barriers to trade in the services sector while fully implementing the free trade agreement with Korea will boost business growth, some observers say. Brian Pearce, chief economist at the
International Air Transport Association (IATA), believes the immediate outlook for the aviation business in general is well illustrated by the current state of its struggling freight market. “Between May and October worldwide air freight markets shrank by 5 percent,” he said. “Air freight is suffering more
than other transport modes. The slump in business confidence has led shippers to switch to cheaper and less timely modes, as they anticipate a build-up of inventory.” Pearce also noted that a decline in air freight fortunes “has been a good indicator of wider economic weakness in the past”. In October, IATA published the results
of a survey conducted with airline chief financial officers and heads of cargo which showed that 45 percent of respondents were expecting to see a fall in yield for their business efforts in the rest of the year ahead. On transatlantic trade between
Europe and the US, volumes have been depressed by the economic situation and many believe that the first six months of 2012 will be hard going for the air freight carriers. From the Far East, Korean Air Cargo – the world’s second-largest international cargo carrier in airline terms – said in early December that European freight demand was below
14 AIR LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT
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