SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2010 NFL GAMEDAY
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THE LEAGUE: The Post’s blog is your place for all things NFL during the season.
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WEEK3TELEVISIONGAMES 6Smarter Stats is a blog written by Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. For complete analysis of all of the week’s games go to
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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
1 p.m.,WUSA-9, Ravens by 11
Cleveland averages 14 points per game but has not scored in the second half. The Browns have permitted only one sack. The Ravens swept the series last year by a combined 50-3 score. As a starter against Cleveland, Ravens RB Ray Rice, above, averages 5.6 yards per carry on 52 tries.
SMARTER STATS: Joe Flacco, Baltimore’s Alleged Next GreatHope, was, by Football Outsiders’ metrics, the worst quarterback in the NFL in Week 2. The four interceptions were bad enough, but what’s more worrisome is his abysmal completion percentage. Of the passes Flacco has thrown through two games, only 48.1 percent have found his receivers in a productive fashion.
USERS PICKING THE RAVENS 97% GAMESNOTONTELEVISION
Cincinnati at Carolina 1 pm., Bengals by 3
MATCHUP
Last week marked the fifth time the Bengals won without scoring a TD. WRChad Ochocinco needs one TD catch to pass Carl Pickens for the franchise record. The Panthers are seeking to avoid a second straight 0-3 start. They have two TDs in two games after going the entire preseason without an offensive TD.
Tennessee at NewYork Giants 1 p.m., Giants by 3
The Titans have won nine straight against the NFC and have beaten the Giants four straight. GiantsWRHakeem Nicks leads the NFL with four TD catches. GiantsWRSteve Smith has a first-down catch in 35 consecutive games. TE Kevin Boss hopes to return after sitting out the last game with concussion.
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay 1 p.m., Steelers by 3
Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are among six teams that have started 2-0 after missing the playoffs last season. The Steelers, who have not scored an offensive touchdown, are trying to start 3-0 for first time since 2007. SteelersWRHinesWard has a reception in 180 consecutive games, the fifth-longest streak in league history
Buffalo at NewEngland 1 p.m., Patriots by 141/2
The Patriots have won the last 13 games between these teams, the fourth longest winning streak in NFL history against any one opponent. Buffalo’s last win was 31-0 at home in the 2003 opener. Bills RB C.J. Spiller has gained just nine yards in eight carries after being taken 10th in this year’s draft. He also has eight catches for 31 yards.
San Francisco at Kansas City 1 p.m., 49ers by 21/2
The 49ers, like the Chiefs last week, are coming off a Monday night game at home and crossing time zones to play in a hostile environment. The Chiefs beat Cleveland last week. The 49ers will be at Atlanta next week for their third road game in four weeks. The Chiefs are one of three 2-0 teams that started last year 0-2.
Dallas at Houston 1 p.m., Texans by 3
The Cowboys are trying to avoid their first 0-3 start since 2001, when they dropped their first four games and finished 5-11. The Texans can go 3-0 for first time in their nine seasons. They lead the NFL in scoring (32 ppg) and total offense (440.5 ypg), and are second against the run (31 ypg) but 32nd against the pass (411 ypg).
Detroit at Minnesota 1 p.m., Vikings by 111/2
The Lions have lost 21 straight road games since they won 16-7 at Chicago on Oct. 28, 2007, the fourth longest streak in league history. The Lions also hold the record of 24, set from 2001-03. The Vikings also started 0-2 in 2008 and rebounded to make the playoffs. They haven’t started 0-3 since they went 0-4 to start the 2002 season.
Atlanta at NewOrleans 1 p.m., Saints by 31/2
Each team is missing a key running back because of injury: Falcons’ Jerious Norwood is out for the season; Reggie Bush is out four to six weeks for New Orleans. The Saints are plus-five on turnovers this season, with three INTs and two fumble recoveries. The team has committed no turnovers.
Philadelphia at Jacksonville 4:05 p.m., Eagles by 3
The Eagles have allowed 12 sacks. Defensive end Trent Cole needs two sacks to become the fifth player in Eagles history with 50. Jaguars’ RB Maurice Jones-Drew is looking for his first 100-yard game of the season. He has failed to reach 100 yards in eight of his last nine games.
Oakland at Arizona 4:15 p.m., Cardinals by 41/2
Oakland RB Darren McFadden is second in the NFL in rushing after two games with 240 yards in 48 attempts. Arizona ranks next-to-last in rushing defense after surrendering 221 yards to the Falcons. The game features two of the league’s top punters, Shane Lechler of Oakland and Ben Graham of Arizona.
San Diego at Seattle 4:15 p.m., Chargers by 5
Philip Rivers passed for 334 yards last week against Jacksonville, the 16th 300-yard game of his career. He has thrown a TD pass in 15 straight games. Seattle safety Lawyer Milloy will make his 201st career start. He is one of three active players with 200 or more starts. Seattle K Olindo Mare has made 22 straight field goals .
AFC EAST
Miami N.Y. Jets
New England Buffalo
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SOUTH Houston
Jacksonville Tennessee Indianapolis
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Pittsburgh Cincinnati Baltimore Cleveland
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Kansas City San Diego Denver Oakland
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NFC EAST
Washington N.Y. Giants Philadelphia Dallas
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
4:15 p.m. WUSA-9, Colts by 51/2
The Broncos will hold a moment of silence and wear aNo. 11 decal on their helmets in honor of WRKennyMcKinley, who died of an apparently self-inflicted gunshot woundMonday. Colts QB PeytonManning, above, needs 660 yards passing to move past former Broncos great John Elway and into third place on the NFL’s all-time list.
SMARTER STATS: Among teams with positive passing metrics in both shotgun and non- shotgun sets, the Colts have the NFL’s biggest uptick from under center to shotgun. And only the Saints, Lions, and 49ers have allowed more efficiency to shotgun quarterbacks than the Broncos so far this year.
USERS PICKING THE COLTS 87%
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
8:15 p.m.,WRC-4, Dolphins by 21/2
Miami has won the past three meetings, averaging 28.3 points. This is the second of five prime-time games for the Jets, and the first of three for the Dolphins. Jets linebacker Jason Taylor, above, returns toMiami for the first time since signing with the Jets in the offseason. The NFL’s active sack leader spent 12 years with the Dolphins.
SMARTER STATS: The Jets aren’t just undisciplined off the field. They’ve been quite the penalty magnets so far this season. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie is tied with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for the league’s most flags by one player, with five.
USERS PICKING THE JETS 52% SMARTER STATS
Before he was benched in favor of rookie Jimmy Clausen, Carolina quarterback Matt Moore managed two fumbles, four interceptions, and a 40.8 percent completion rate in 58 passes. Clausen probably won’t be much better in an offense that has managed to be opponent- indifferent—it almost doesn’t matter who they’re facing at this point.
In 2009, Eli Manning was about half as effective, per Football Outsiders’ efficiency metrics, when rushed by five or more defenders. His yards per play went from 7.2 to 5.7. The bad news for Manning is that through the first two games, only Green Bay (19.23 percent) has a higher sacks per pass attempt rate than the Titans (14.81 percent).
The Steelers have the NFL’s best defense by just about any statistical measure. They blow away every other defense in our metrics against the run, but they’re no picnic against the pass, either. Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman leads the league in average pass length at 12.17, but the Steelers allow just 5.43 passing yards per play.
New England selected two tight ends in the 2010 draft: Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Hernandez leads the league in average yards after catch with 14.71 on seven catches. Only San Diego’s Malcom Floyd and Denver’s Brandon Lloyd average more yards per reception than Hernandez’s 20.86.
The Chiefs are decidedly average on offense and defense, but they have the NFL’s most efficient special teams unit. They’ve put up that ranking by amassing a ridiculous amount of punt return value. That’s what averaging 83.0 return yards per game (almost twice as much as second-place Seattle at 49.5) will do.
Dallas spent about $30 million guaranteed in the 2010 season on its top three wide receivers. It has an All-Pro tight end and three running backs with valuable talents. But it has a piecemeal offensive line in front of all that flash. That’s like putting 1,000 gold bars in your backyard, unguarded, with a sign that reads, “Do Not Steal!”
You’d expect the Lions to start the season 0-2; Minnesota’s equally winless record through two games is a bit more of a surprise. Detroit does rank in the top 10 in many of our defensive line stats. The Vikings rank 20th in our pass protection metric, which could mean a long day for QB Brett Favre.
Atlanta wide receiver RoddyWhite is by far the NFL’s most targeted receiver; QB Matt Ryan has thrown his way 35 times. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, on the other hand, has thrown at least 10 passes to three different receivers.
Both quarterbacks are among the league leaders in yards per pass attempt. Philly’s Michael Vick ranks ninth with 9.36, and Jacksonville’s David Garrard is 10th at 9.23. Vick hasn’t thrown a single interception this season, and Garrard leads the league in interception percentage (9.1 percent of his pass attempts have fallen into the wrong hands).
Remember the phrase, “If you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin’ ”? Don’t tell these two teams. Through two weeks, the Raiders and Cardinals rank first and second in total penalties (including declined and offsetting) with Oakland (26 for 167 yards) taking the lead. Arizona has amassed 24 flags for 181 yards.
The Seahawks have one decided advantage in this game—they currently rank third overall in Football Outsiders’ special teams metrics, and they have the highest efficiency rating in punt returns. The Chargers, by those same measurements, have the NFL’s worst punt coverage by a wide margin.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN, Packers by 3
The Bears are 2-0 for first time since the 2006 Super Bowl team won its first seven. They have allowed 56 yards rushing, holding Detroit to 20 and Dallas to 36. Packers DE Cullen Jenkins, above, has posted a sack in each game. Jordy Nelson ranks second in NFL with a 31.0-yard average on seven kickoff returns.
SMARTER STATS: Second-year outside linebacker ClayMatthews became the first player in team history to record two straight three-sack games. It’s an impressive feat, considering that the Packers have been around since 1921. It’s not out of the question for Matthews to pick up three QB takedowns in a third straight contest.
USERS PICKING THE PACKERS 75% USER PICKS
89% picked the Bengals
65% picked the Giants
73% picked the Steelers
99% picked the Patriots
52% picked the 49ers
68% picked the Texans
89% picked the Vikings
87% picked the Saints
84% picked the Eagles
74% picked the Cardinals
85%% picked the Chargers
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Tampa Bay New Orleans Atlanta Carolina
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NORTH Chicago
Green Bay Detroit
Minnesota
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Seattle Arizona
San Francisco St. Louis
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