Regaining Lost Ground T
A forecast of worldwide metalcasting predicts shipments will reach 105.5 million tons by 2016.
Ken Kirgin, Stratecasts Inc., Ft. Myers, Florida
he bottom of the recession is expected to have been reached in 2009-2010, so a
growth in metal casting shipments is forecast for the ensuing years. How- ever, a worldwide shortage of scrap and pig iron likely will raise casting costs, resulting in metalcasting fa- cility closings and a global casting capacity reduction of 1 million tons in fi ve years. Utilization of capac- ity, therefore, is expected to rise to near 80%, and the average tons shipped per plant should increase from 2,100 tons to 2,500 tons per year. Automotive growth in most regions is expected
to spur casting usage in the future, with growth in China and India exceeding all other countries and re- gions. Total aluminum and ductile iron casting growth is forecast to reach 15 mil- lion and 29 million tons per year. Worldwide metal cast- ing shipments are estimated to rise to 105.5 million tons in 2016 (Fig. 1). An analysis of the pro-
Fig. 1. China, Western Europe and the U.S. will produce 64% of the world’s metal castings by 2016.
The Americas Brazil—Brazil’s 1,000 casting fa-
cilities employ 60,000 workers. Casting capacity is approximately 2.2 to 2.5 mil- lion tons. Nearly 50% of gray and ductile iron shipments are automotive, and nearly 70% of aluminum is automotive (Fig. 2). Captive automotive facilities include Ford, General Motors and Fiat. Mexico—Casting imports to the U.S.
from Mexico are estimated to be more than 400,000 tons in 2016. Growth in ductile iron is expected to be spurred by new high production facilities. Alu- minum is forecast to reach 1 million tons as Ford block tonnage increases. Motor vehicle production is forecast to be up after the 2009-2010 slump. Canada—Casting imports to the U.S.
Mexico’s Nemak produces engine cylinder blocks and heads at its 16 million sq. ft. campus, which also houses a full research and development center.
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from Canada are expected to rise. Total aluminum casting production continues to grow and is forecast to reach 330,000 tons in 2016.
MODERN CASTING / March 2010
duction of gray iron, ductile iron, aluminum and steel castings in Europe and other major industrial re- gions has been conducted to determine the status of the world casting mar- ketplace. Following is the outlook for the metalcasting industries of several main casting nations.
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