Politics


Senate Slam-Dunks Not So Certain Now


R


Unlikely challengers give incumbents a race for their money. BY JOHN GIZZI


ick scott of florida, deb Fischer of Nebraska, and Tammy Baldwin of Wiscon- sin were thought to be the


slam-dunks for reelection this year to the U.S. Senate. Democrats were finding it difficult


to recruit substantial opponents to Scott and Fischer, both Republicans. Baldwin, a Democrat, had won


a grueling primary in 2012 and two hard-fought general elections in ’12 and ’18, but her third race this year seemed to be the proverbial charm. Barely five months before the November election, this is no longer the case. Scott finds himself in an unexpect-


edly close contest with a former Dem- ocrat congresswoman.


Why Is Scott Struggling? T


he Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey among


likely Florida voters that came out in March left Republican operatives in Tallahassee and Washington, D.C., speechless. Democrat nominee


and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trailed Sen. Rick Scott, former two-term governor and multimillionaire entrepreneur, 44%-41%. It is stunning that


SCOTT Baldwin’s wealthy businessman


foe appears to be catching on with Badger State voters. And in Nebraska, a labor union


official decided to run for the Senate when no Democrat filed for the seat. Smelling possible blood in a state that last elected a Democrat senator 24 years ago, state Democrats gave their blessing to the independent. A look, then, at these unexpectedly interesting contests.


voters, PPP found, had no opinion. Why? With lucrative backing from Emily’s List, the difference on abortion between Mucarsel-Powell (pro-choice) and Scott (pro-life) was widely delineated on television. Other Scott-watchers


Scott, who has name recognition of perhaps 90%- 100% statewide, is locked in a tight contest against a former one-term congresswoman of which 63% of Sunshine State


MUCARSEL- POWELL


say his precarious situation is due to a policy plan he unveiled last year that would have sunset Medicare and Social Security —


the proverbial “untouchables” or “third rails” of politics. Suddenly under intense


fire, Scott revised the plan to take those programs “off


the table” and the Floridian insisted he “never supported cutting Social Security or Medicare — ever.” In winning the Republican


primary for governor in 2014, first-time candidate Scott dipped into his vast personal exchequer and pulled off a narrow upset.


When he unseated


veteran Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018, he again heavily spent his own money and won a squeaker. Should Scott feel threatened, it is a foregone conclusion he will reach for his checkbook once more and survive.


POLLS: Emerson College in April showed Scott leading the Democrat 45%-38% — again, unimpressive for someone who had been on the statewide ballot three times.


The same month, a USA


Today/Ipsos Poll showed Scott edging Mucarsel- Powell by 36%-26% — again, stunning when one realizes the same poll showed 74% of Florida voters never heard of Mucarsel-Powell.


It is stunning that Scott, who has name recognition of perhaps 90%-100% statewide, is locked in a tight contest against a former one-term congresswoman of which 63% of Sunshine State voters, PPP found, had no opinion.


36 NEWSMAX | JUNE 2024


BALLOT/N UNIVERSE/SHUTTERSTOCK / OSBORN/FACEBOOK / ALL OTHERS WIKIMEDIA COMMONS


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