The right to tell people what they do not want to hear


By Jane Brooks


If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear – George Orwell (Animal Farm)


Here in the UK we seem to playing a political game of hokey cokey when it comes to our plans to leave the EU, leading to Governmental turmoil and whilst the future is never certain, today our place in the world seems even more precarious than ever. However at least we haven’t shot ourselves in the foot in the same


way as the Americans. 2018 saw record planting of GMO high protein soybeans, only for one of their largest export markets to crumble as Trumps’ imposition of tariffs on goods imported from China led to the Chinese retaliating by imposing their own tariffs on imports from America, hitting US GMO soybean growers hard. China buys around 60% of global soybean exports, mainly sourcing


their GMO soy from Brazil and the United States, much of which is used to feed the world’s largest national pig herd. The tariff introduction followed a 2017 regulatory crackdown on importing GMO soybeans, when China’s agricultural GMO regulation scheme armour-plated the soybean approval process, imposing further controls on the whole supply chain of GMO products into China and leading to delays at Chinese ports. GMO crops imported by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture also


include cotton, soybeans, corn and rapeseed. Currently it appears that the U.S. is actively looking for alternative GMO markets in case a return to Chinese tariffs and other restrictions lead to more export slowdowns. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture cotton, corn and


soybeans are the most common genetically engineered (GE) crops grown in the U.S.; in 2012, 93% of all soybeans planted, and 88% of corn planted were GE crops. In the U.S. ingredients derived from GE plants are used in corn


starch in soups and sauces, corn syrup used as a sweetener, corn oil, canola oil and soybean oil in mayonnaise, salad dressings, breads, and snack foods as well as sugars from GE sugar beets in various foods. Other major crops grown in the US with GE varieties include potatoes, squash, apples, and papayas. The American soybean harvest has usually been and gone by


October. In November, however, some farmers were leaving them to rot into the ground and The Washington Post reported on the 6th December that in North Dakota some of the crop still remained in the ground, with more stored in full to capacity grain silos or even in some cases hastily bagged up or left out under tarpaulins in an attempt to prevent the beans deteriorating. American farmers have become prime victims of this trade war,


which has led to China sourcing GMO soybeans from Brazil. In an attempt to stop the ‘tit for tat’ retaliations President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed to a 90-day “cease-fire” at the beginning


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of December. Although there were signs in mid-December that the trade truce was working, it remains to be seen if China intends to continue to source soybeans from America, because as we all know once your customer goes elsewhere it’s very difficult to re-engage with them. Other American farmers are also affected, particularly wheat


producers; a package of aid was made available for farmers earlier this year. However when you are producing a marketable commodity it is really ‘trade not aid’ that people expect, something that our politicians here in the UK need to bear in mind when determining our own agricultural policies. Here in the UK we are not immune to changing Chinese markets,


particularly when it comes to the pig industry. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) in their supply forecasts are anticipating a small overall decline in shipments for 2018 as low Chinese pork prices have limited UK exports during the year. Performance during 2019 will depend, in part, on Chinese demand


developments. The AHDB also work on the assumption that as a result of the presence of African Swine Fever in the Chinese pig herd, some export growth should be possible, provided the UK also maintains access to the EU. The AHDB also believes there has been a small increase in the


breeding herd over the past year, a statement supported by increasing production of compound sow feed and reports of outdoor herd expansion. Overall, though, 2018 was a challenging year, particularly as the hot


summer will have affected growth and fertility rates, the latter of which will have a knock on effect during the first part of 2019. AHDB expect some improved sow performance in 2019, predicting clean pig slaughterings to rise by 2-3% during the year (11 million head). Looking to 2019 it is hard to see feed prices being unaffected by


international and UK market volatility. Taking pork production as an example, even if as is expected by the AHDB supplies available for consumption on the domestic market remain broadly stable during 2019, global pork production is expected to rise. In common with general trends towards eating less meat, consumer


demand for pork here in the UK is falling, so unless there’s a considerable increase in demand, price pressure within the domestic market will see farmers struggling to lower their production costs, particularly if they are also competing with imported pork products. As stock farmers strive to reach breakeven or maintain a small


profit, this will inevitably lead to pressure on the feed milling industry to produce high protein mixes at low prices. Pig farmers in particular, who are heavily dependent on formulated feedstuffs, are facing a very uncertain future. So whilst the AHDB’s forecast of a slight rise in the UK pig herd could


be seen as good news, prices will remain under considerable pressure without a sustained increase in demand. Something that’s not lost on the Scottish Government who have awarded Quality Meat Scotland £125,000 to help fund a new marketing and public relations campaign for Specially Selected Pork, the country’s quality assured pigmeat brand. The ‘Go Places with Pork’ campaign launches on 21st January. TV,


radio, print, billboard and social media channels will be used to highlight pork as healthy, easy to cook, good value and locally produced to world class welfare standards.


Comment section is sponsored by Compound Feed Engineering Ltd www.cfegroup.com


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