purchased feeds, facing rising ASF and AI impacts in 2019, Rabobank’s warning isn’t for the faint-hearted. “With the severity of disease outbreaks showing no signs of being


curbed, biosecurity will become a higher business priority for livestock producers in the year ahead,” said the bank’s animal protein specialist, Justin Sherrard. “Major disease outbreaks are affecting global trade flows and consumer preferences and, as a result, we expect to see a shift to beef and seafood consumption in some markets.” As for the impact of severe weather systems, there’s an 80% chance


the next El Niño will be formally declared by the end of the winter, a development which Rabobank expects will create ‘further uncertainty across commodities markets’. At least, the bank’s outlook for the global poultry industry, published


in late December 2018, talks of gradual improvements in 2019 for this vital feed sector consumer. Forecasting that global trade will remain volatile and competitive


throughout the first half of 2019, with exporters competing for reduced volumes as a result of ongoing trade issues, such as the US-China tensions, changing Saudi trade standards and the removal of some Brazilian exporters from the EU’s approved list, the bank still finds hope for the second half of the year. “We expect markets to gradually recover, with China in the forefront,”


said Nan-Dirk Mulder, Rabobank’s senior animal protein analyst. “This will likely lead to increasing broiler prices in China, with some consumers substituting chicken for pork, and the global poultry trade focusing more on China as the country’s domestic chicken production is restricted by low breeding-stock availability. “Countries which can supply China are well positioned to benefit


from this situation, such as Brazil and some Eastern European countries (including Russia) who are just gaining access to Chinese markets.” Sorry, but as a note of optimism on which to conclude my 2019


‘review of forecasts’ that’s about as good as it gets. At the time of writing, of course.


Sustainability goals The old adage of ‘waste-not/want-not’ was given a timely update late last year when the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals included a commitment to halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels, while also reducing food losses along production and supply chains. I’m indebted to James McCulloch, head of the animal feed sector


at the UK’s Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC), for bringing this to my attention. “Recent clarification from the EU has made it clear that former


foodstuffs are not ‘waste’,” he said in a recent AIC report. “By taking food products that cannot be used for human consumption from food manufacturers and converting them for use as animal feed, the former foodstuffs industry is reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the amount of food going into one-time energy generation or landfill. “Members of the UK Former Foodstuffs Processors Association


(UKFFPA) already process around 650,000 tonnes of material every year, and we believe there is room for even greater quantities. The Association is committed to ensuring that food manufacturers reduce waste, and, wherever possible, food is used for human consumption. “Pushing food up the ‘waste hierarchy’ developed by WRAP (Waste and Resources Action Programme), will help this country to meet the


UN targets.” David Moon, Head of Business Collaboration at WRAP agreed:


“It’s vitally important that food businesses explore all options to reduce food ending up as waste. If food surplus or waste can’t be prevented from arising at source, and isn’t suitable for redistribution to people, then using this to produce animal feed is the next best thing. “WRAP’s research suggests that there is the potential to increase


the amount of food surplus being sent to animal feed by around 20% by 2025, preventing an additional 140,000 tonnes a year of food waste. We therefore welcome the activities of the UKFFPA in raising awareness of this opportunity for businesses to further drive down food waste.” Food for thought certainly.


Antibiotic awareness Is this subject too well known for me to give it a bit more time and space? It’s a question I constantly ask when sifting through potential news items for inclusion in this regular review article. For once, however, I make no apologies about the following choice


of content, even if you’ve already seen it several times before. Did you know that only 38% of Europeans are aware that antibiotic


growth promoters are no longer allowed to be included in animal feed rations as growth promoters? This non-inclusion rule has existed since 2006, of course, but 62% of


Europeans have somehow missed out on that bit of knowledge over the last 12 years. It’s a shocking fact which clearly adds to the frustrations felt by industry leaders who have spent so long seeking to change minds and opinions over the correct and justified use of antibiotics in agriculture. Pass it on! Please.


Grow truffles instead And finally, if it really does all gets too much for you in 2019, you could always farm truffles instead. Okay, this has nothing whatsoever to do with animal feed, but it’s


a fun idea which would keep you busy for at least the next ten years and without any immediate risk of making a profit. Why does that sound oddly familiar (at the time of writing)? I came across this item in early December when I interviewed


UK truffle specialist, Dr Paul Thomas, following a meeting for potential growers in Scotland. The headline figures are definitely appealing with up to £400 a


kilogram currently being paid for a quality truffle, sufficient to yield a return of £24,000-a-year from each planted hectare. Unfortunately, according to Dr Thomas, establishing a productive


hectare of truffle trees costs in the region of £17,000 in plantation and management fees. After that, it’s basically a case of waiting for six years until the first saleable truffles appear. Even then, early year harvests tend to be quite small, with it taking 10-12 years for a plantation to achieve full production. Provided you can afford to wait that long, however, the good news


is that a mature plantation should remain productive for a very long time, at least 20 years. As I said, it’s a nice idea which has nothing to do with feeding


animals. What it does illustrate, however, is that the most profitable investments often take a long time to mature, a truth which will hopefully also apply to whatever happens, or doesn’t happen, at 11pm UK time on Friday, March 29, 2019.


FEED COMPOUNDER JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2019 PAGE 15


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