DNV’s FuelPath model provides results for various scenarios


DNV’s techno-economic evaluation involves two case studies using the company’s tried and tested FuelPath model for a large, modern deep-sea ship, a 15,000 TEU container vessel sailing between the Far East and Western Europe.


Inputs that can be varied (Figure 1) in the model include ship specifications and use, a newbuild’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and design


options such as converters and fuel systems.


Studying ship decarbonization post-2030


Maritime Forecast to 2050 describes the technical, operational and economic assumptions involved in the case studies. In essence, the model assesses the economic performance of available design options related to a fuel over a vessel’s lifetime. The outputs include total cost of ownership and the cost of fuel strategies


under different fuel-price scenarios. Annual costs include annual payments on capital expenditure (CAPEX), fuel costs, carbon prices and operating expenditure (OPEX).


Benchmarking fuel strategies for the case-study ship


Based on real-world data and experience, the research first benchmarks the cost of the fuel strategies reflecting energy converter and fuel-system design options open to the case-study vessel over its lifetime.


Annual cost range


Figure 2: The benchmark span of annual costs and net present value for the case-study ship with fuel strategies using fuel oil, LNG, ammonia, methanol and all four with carbon-neutral blend-in for compliance (DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050, 2023 edition)


More specifically, DNV draws on its data-driven estimates of maximum and minimum fuel prices annually over the period 2030–2060 to create benchmark spans of annual costs and net present value for the case-study ship for various fuel strategies (Figure 2). It uses these spans to evaluate under what conditions on-board carbon capture and nuclear propulsion could be feasible.


On-board CCS case study model


Assumptions for this study are described extensively in Maritime Forecast to 2050. Briefly though,


the ship runs on heavy fuel oil (HFO), has a carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture unit and storage tanks, and is fitted with a scrubber for sulphur oxides (SOX) and exhaust pre-treatment.


The study models annual costs under two on-board CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) scenarios, Low and High cost, to compensate for economic uncertainties such as CAPEX and OPEX. It focuses on two parameters that it assesses as impacting most on the economics of on-board CO₂ capture. One is the ‘fuel penalty’, the extra energy used for operating the capture unit. The


other is the ‘CO₂ deposit cost’, the sum of the CO₂ transport and storage costs.


What is required for an economic case for on-board CCS?


For the annual cost range, the Low CSS (cost) scenario is seen to perform well against the other fuel strategies (Figure 3). The Forecast attributes this partly to the HFO price in the scenarios, and partly to fuel penalty and CO₂ deposit costs compared with the cost of buying a larger share of carbon-neutral fuels.


THE REPORT | DEC 2023 | ISSUE 106 | 123


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