NEWS INSIGHT
MEGATRENDS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF TRAVEL
EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL REVEALS POTENTIAL IMPACT OF EUROZONE RECESSION AND BREXIT ON FUTURE TOURISM ARRIVALS
Rob Gill
Italy and France could suffer the largest drops in tourism arrivals over the next five years if there is a recession in the eurozone, according to research from global market research company Euromonitor International. Euromonitor’s Megatrends Shaping
the Future of Travel report – which is released today (5 November) and looks at major trends from 2019 to 2024 – forecasts both Italy and France could see a “potential downgrade in demand by more than five million arrivals” if the eurozone falls into recession. Other European destinations most
affected by a recession will be Spain, Greece and Turkey, according to the report. With such a “constrained” outlook, Euromonitor is predicting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 1.9% in travel products over the next five years. The report adds some sectors of the
travel industry are set to “outperform the market” for growth including low- cost carriers and short-term rentals as “consumers seek value for money”. Meanwhile, online travel sales will act as a “catalyst for growth” with a forecast CAGR of 3.4% up to 2024. Euromonitor adds inbound tourism receipts to western Europe will reach
No-deal Brexit impact 5.1 million
The predicted reduction in international trips from the UK between 2019 and 2024
702,000
The forecasted increase in inbound arrivals to the UK between 2019 and 2024
05.11.2019 WTM OFFICIAL EVENT DAILY 45
$552 billion by 2024. Although, this growth is “underwhelming compared with the fast growth enjoyed in other regions like Asia Pacific”. When it comes to Brexit, Euromonitor
predicts a no-deal departure by the UK from the EU would lead to a 5% “write-down” on international outbound trips from the UK, “knocking 5.1 million trips off future demand”
NUMBER CRUNCHER $3 trillion 1.9%
Estimated value of global travel sales by 2024
from 2019 to 2024. Although, there could be an increase of 702,000 inbound arrivals to the UK over the same period. Other trends explored in the report
include the so-called “Greta effect”, named after the teenage Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, and how this may be affecting consumers’ attitudes to environmental issues including the trend of “flygskam” or “flight shame”. Caroline Bremner, travel industry
manager at Euromonitor, added: “In Europe, the Greta effect is beginning to be felt, with new business tools like carbon calculators being launched to encourage consumers to choose more sustainable travel alternatives.” Euromonitor also examines the
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of travel products in western Europe from 2019-2024
58.6%
accessibility of tourism services, with nearly one-fifth (18%) of the world’s population aged either 65-plus or up to four years old, plus one billion people living with a disability.
To order a copy of the report, visit
go.euromonitor.com/
WTM19.html
The percentage of Europeans worried about climate change
Find out more about Euromonitor’s global report at the Megatrends Shaping the Future of Travel session at 11:30-12:30 today in the Press Conference Theatre – International Media Centre.
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