AIR TRAVEL


EUROPEAN air traffic ended 2024 at 96% of 2019 levels, with air navigation safety organisation Eurocontrol forecasting a full return this year. Iata’s analysis of global air traffic, based on


revenue per passenger kilometre or revenue- generating capacity, showed a near 4% rise on 2019 by the end of 2024, with Iata reporting: “All regions outperformed pre-pandemic levels.” Revenue-generating capacity on international flights was up slightly less by 0.5%. Passenger numbers at UK airports, at


297 million, were 2% shy of the record 2019 figure. However, the average number of daily flights to, from and within the UK remained 6% down on 2019 – reflecting rises in both average flight capacity and average load factor. The surge in demand for overseas travel


was reflected in significant increases on 2019 in the number of daily flights to and from Spain (up 8%), Italy (6%), Turkey (12%) and Greece (18%). The UK remained Europe’s busiest aviation market – with 10% more flights a day than Spain and 16% more than Germany. The jet fuel price averaged 10% lower over the year, easing the cost pressures on carriers. Flight punctuality remained below 2019’s


level, with an on-time arrival rate of 72.5% across Europe, 1.5 percentage points better than in 2023 but 5.6 points down on 2019. Eurocontrol noted in July that air traffic delays in Europe could not be resolved without a “transformation” of air traffic management. It confirmed air traffic management delays “surged” in 2023 and noted that although a majority were attributed to bad weather, a shortage of controllers was “generally a factor”. Eurocontrol warned of continuing


disruption, arguing: “It’s crucial to find a balance between cost efficiency and quality of service.” Modernisation of European airspace and


move to a ‘Single European Sky’, long called for by airlines, seems a way off. However, the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) published a plan for “full-scale modernisation” of UK airspace, with the government publishing an Airspace Modernisation policy paper in October. CAA head of sustainability


Aviation soars to previous heights


Air traffic disruption, aircraft delivery delays and challenging SAF targets cloud the outlook despite robust demand


FIGURE 58:


FLIGHTS IN LAST 12 MONTHS


%


10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80


0


% UK adults, by age group


2019 2023


65% 57% 54%55% 57% 58% 54% 47%


Harry Armstrong described it as “a huge programme of work” which could result in a 4%-5% reduction in aviation emissions but could “also facilitate more flights”. The government’s support for a Heathrow


third runway and expansion at Gatwick and Luton airports, signalled in January, would require airspace modernisation to handle the additional traffic so the timing of developments will be crucial.


SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL The UK government’s Sustainable Available Fuel Mandate, requiring a minimum 2% SAF use across all flights departing the UK in 2025, came into force on New Year’s Day. However, meeting the target could present


a challenge given there is only one UK SAF plant operating. The previous government pledged there would be five UK SAF plants under construction by 2025, but aviation minister Mike Kane said: “None of the legislative work was done.” Kane confirmed a revenue certainty mechanism, to assure investors in SAF production of a baseline price, should be introduced by the end of 2026. The issue may be what happens in the meantime. The 2% target will be aggregated across


All adults 18-34 35-54 55+ Base: Respondents among 3,510 UK


adults who flew in previous 12 months, November 2019 and October 2023 Source: CAA


the year and not mean 2% of fuel on every flight is SAF. The mandate requires increased SAF uptake each year to reach 10% in 2030. The first generation of SAF fuels, made from used cooking oil and household waste,


300 250 200 150 100 50


FIGURE 59: UK AIRPORT PASSENGER NUMBERS, 1999-2024 297m


284m 268m 251m 227m 199m 168m 180m 188m 179m 215m 240m 218m 234m 235m 210m 219m 228m 238m 220m 268m 206m 292m


290m*


74m 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015


64m 2017 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024* UK & international passengers, outbound, inbound & domestic, to nearest million Source: CAA


Travel Weekly Insight Report 2025 41


Passengers (million)


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