FEATURE
Chart 1: UK Market for Floorings 2005-2015 - by value
2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500
Value
2005 2097
2006 2007 2008 2009 % change -3 2 -8
2150 2182 2071 1904 1785 1778 1832 -5
-6 - 3
Est 2010 Fcst 2011 Fcst 1012 Fcst 2013 Fcst 2014 Fcst 2015 1851 1886 1
2
As a mature market, floorcoverings are exposed to fluctuations in consumer and business confidence and spending with recent performance for the market, illustrated in the chart above.
will be hosting the Olympic games in 2012, which has the potential to not only boost refurbishment activities surrounding the Games (estimating a value growth of approximately 3 - 4%) but it will also aid recovery in the housing market. In addition, the rail sector is also likely to provide an additional momentum through the refurbishment of stations, Crossrail and the commission of new rolling stock, which could benefit products such as carpet, vinyl, ceramic tiles and natural stone.
Future prospects Now into the first quarter of 2011, the prospects for the overall floorcovering market are mixed, until 2015 when the market is expected to achieve a value of around £1.9 billion. This is
www.tomorrowsflooring.com
dependent on recovery in the housing market and key commercial sectors, which are likely to be tempered by significant budgets in public sector capital budgets from mid-2011 onwards.
Across the product mix, carpet is likely to remain the dominant floorcovering, boosted by the tradition of ownership in the UK. Tufted carpets are likely to continue to lead the market, although significant share gain remains unlikely, given its current dominant position. Carpet tiles however, are forecast to experience accountable growth, with the prospect of a recovery from the commercial offices sector likely to boost sales in the medium term.
The wood flooring sector is a little more difficult to forecast given the volatile performance of laminates in
recent years. The improving situation in the housing market is likely to stimulate laminate sales into the medium term, but growth rates are likely to be more moderate than those achieved in the past.
Solid and engineered woods are also expected to rise, up to 2015, at annual rates of 2- 3%. Engineered woods are likely to continue to saturate the contract sector and act as replacement for existing laminates in the domestic sector.
The outlook for vinyl also remains difficult, with public sector cuts likely to affect growth prospects for key contract applications. In addition, domestic vinyl is likely to remain under pressure from competing materials such as ceramic tiles and natural stone.
Overall, while the future doesn’t look overly bright, it is set to improve; taking measured steps into recovery, instead of large leaps and bounds. It is clear that the market has much in its favour, with the Olympic Games taking first place in the race to recovery. It will be interesting to see how each sector of the floorcoverings market chooses to behave over the coming years, and while 2015 seems a while away, it is clear that the only way... is up.
For a full copy of the ‘Floorcoverings Market – UK 2011 – 2015’ report, you can contact AMA Research by calling 01242 235 724 or visiting the website at
www.amaresearch.co.uk
27
1933 3
Value (£m at MSP)
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