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A further macro-economic uncertainty post-crisis is the effect on international transport. It is conceivable, for example, that travel and tourism may remain at depressed levels for an extended period. This could seriously limit the availability of premium ‘belly freight’ air transport, reducing the attractiveness of long-distance supply chains. Meanwhile, until the new world economy settles down, exchange rates and commodity prices could be volatile, creating extra challenges for sourcing policies.


Tax or spend? Governments will look to revitalise the economy by boosting retail demand. However, that is not straightforward. Vastly increased state borrowings will have to be financed through increased taxation and consumer booms tend to be inf lationary. On the other hand, we may find that consumer demand remains depressed.


Demand may be suppressed by changing consumer attitudes to ‘buying stuff’. An unknown, but potentially large, number of consumers may be at least temporarily unemployed, with little disposable income. It may be that many of the ‘just about managing’ will have to make significant reductions in expenditure. Some will have retained their full-time income and, having been denied opportunities to spend, may come out of the crisis relatively cash-rich. The availability of consumer credit AC is another unknown; the


POST COVID-19: THE NEW NORMAL


government could choose to push credit towards industry rather than consumers.


If the government is seen to have failed workers in the ‘gig’ economy. New regulations may be introduced that will impact on retailers’ costs and f lexibility.


All factors are likely to f luctuate in a fairly random fashion for quite a while.


Conscious consumers Retail is, of course, the expression of a myriad of individual consumer decisions. What we were noticing, even before the current emergency, was the development of a set of behaviours, concerns and wants that have been characterised as ‘the conscious consumer’.


We expect these trends to continue and to be amplified by the crisis. Concerns are not confined to wealthy or middle classes, or the young.


These trends will affect what people buy, where and how they shop. Retailers will need to adapt.


Many issues beyond price, quality and availability are inf luencing customer choices with more attention being paid to both eco and ethical concerns.


Another trend, much talked about but which may be made a reality by the current crisis, is a reaction against buying ‘disposable’ fashion and other items intended for a short or even single-use


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life. Although this is partly bound in with environmental, resource, and social concerns, there are also demographic factors: the decline in home ownership, and rise in singleton households – the divorced, the elderly – are not just impacting the market for white and brown goods and home furnishings, but are making the ownership of large amounts of ‘stuff’ generally less attractive. Retail may become less ‘fashion-driven’, with implications for sourcing, ordering, stockholding and merchandising strategies.


Allied with this, we may see demand grow for goods to be repairable rather than replaceable. Developments in leasing or rental of consumer durables could radically alter retailing.


Changing the retail experience Finally, there is the question of how and where consumers will do their shopping. As noted, online already accounts for 21 per cent of retail spend. In current conditions, many consumers will be using online for the first time and many more will have come to depend on online ordering and home delivery for most or all of their purchases. Provided experiences are generally positive, and the fulfilment network settles into an efficient and reliable state, many of these consumers may change their mode of shopping permanently.


Visits to shops have been curtailed with consumers urged to


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