Winter 2019-20 expected to be a wet one
Southern Alberta can expect a not-
so-cold,but wet, winter this year. While the majority of Canada can
BY NIKKI JAMIESON insight magazine
expect snow, according to the Canadian edition of the 2020 Old Farmer’s Almanac, southern Alberta will be experiencing slightly above average tem- peratures and precipitation, and slightly below average snowfall. “All of those should be taken with a grain of salt, or a grain of snow, as it is, because we don’t see the deviations to be really that great from what a nor- mal winter would be,”said Jack Burnett, managing editor of the The Old Farmer’s Almanac.“We do see some changes from last year. Last year, as you may recall, February was like bitterly, bitterly cold,and we don’t really see that happening this year. I mean it’s Alberta, you know, southern Alberta, so it’s going to be cold, there’s no question about that, and there will be cold snaps,as we call them. But in general,we don’t expect February or any part of the winter to be an extreme deep freeze over an extended period of time.”
Similar to last year, temperatures between November to January will be warmer than normal, bringing up the average temperature for that winter. Another late winter is expected in 2019/2020. Burnett said when they say it will be a wet winter, they are referring to “a
more edge type of precipitation,”such as sleet and freezing
rain.That’s not to say we won’t see snow around
here.According to Burnett, heavy snow periods are expected to be taking place mid-Novermber, mid-December, first 10 days of January and February and the last week of March into the first week of April across the Canadian prairies,and big snowstorms are expected to go around Dec.15 and March 29. The Farmer’s Almanac uses the same formula that was used back in 1792 by the publication’s founder Robert
B.Thomas.He used three things for his
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weather forecast, what is now known as meteorology and climatology. Although back then, he was using antidotal evidence and stories from trav- ellers about weather conditions elsewhere compared to the technology we have
today.The third thing, which Burnett said set him apart,was he collect- ed sunspot numbers into his forecast, as he felt that sunspots and solar radi- ation had something to do with the
weather.These things have now been turned into computer algorithms, and they load their weather observations they can collect into this program. “We analyze, for thousands of places,we analyze the current weather pat-
terns by computer,and then we go back in the past and we find the time in the past that most closely resembles the present.And then what we do is we go back,and we look in the past,and we see what happens next back then,” said Burnett.“Knowing all of that,would it make sense for what happened back then to happen next know?” In the past few years,The Farmer’s Almanac has been tweaking their com-
puter formulas in order to account for climate change. “Our forecast method has worked for 220-some years, you know. So we’re kind of like a giant ocean liner out on the sea, it takes a lot to get us to
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