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The Future of Motoring The Griffin Report


Motoring is set to undergo its biggest revolution since the invention of the internal combustion engine in the next decade. There will be a major switch throughout the world from petrol and diesel powered vehicles to alternative fuels, notably electricity. The change is already happening – only recently, car giant Jaguar Land Rover announced a new Range Rover which is equipped with a plug-in hybrid electric powertrain. This follows the news that from 2020 all new Jaguar and Land Rover vehicles will have the option of electrification, marking the next step of the company’s move away from fossil fuels. On these pages, Chamberlink’s award-winning columnist Jon Griffin, looks at the implications of the electric revolution. He speaks to renowned West Midland automotive expert Professor David Bailey of Aston University, and University of Birmingham academic Robert Gregory, who warns of major recycling issues ahead. He also tries out one of the electric cars that can be bought today, made by California-based Tesla.


Electric dreams


The UK faces an unprecedented ‘mobility revolution’ - with more change for millions of car drivers over the next 10 years than in the last 100. Professor Bailey says that Britain must prepare


itself for a astonishing change to the nation’s road network. The Aston University Professor, who drives an electric Nissan Leaf, predicts a major switch to electric cars over the next 10 years – providing the likes of Jaguar Land Rover with the chance to create thousands of new jobs. And he says nobody will need to own a car for


city centre use within 20 years – while car dealers, taxi and delivery drivers and other parts of the automotive sector face massive disruption. The Aston University Professor offered a


fascinating glimpse of the future of West Midlands roads as the car industry digests the Government announcement that petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2040. He told Chamberlink: “I think there will be more


change in the next 10 years than there has been in the last 100 – and I do not think that is appreciated yet. There is going to be a mobility revolution. In 20 years’ time you will not need to own a car in the city. The direction of travel is clear – we are going to electric because the cost of the cars will come down and their range will improve.” Professor Bailey described the announcement of


the 2040 deadline for petrol and diesel cars as ‘welcome.’ He said: “It sets a clear target for the industry and there is enough growth time for the industry to adapt – it will focus minds. It is a bit like saying we are going to ban steam engines, because there is no doubt we will be switching over.” The automotive expert exchanged his Jaguar X-


Type for an electric Nissan Leaf four years ago – and is full of praise for the battery-powered vehicle. “The X-Type was very nice but I was increasingly concerned about air quality. “The Nissan Leaf costs virtually nothing to run –


there is no road tax and the servicing costs are minimal. I lease it and it is about £230 a month all in.” He said a tipping point towards electric would be


reached by the 2020s as the cost of the vehicles came down. “We will have the switchover in a big way in less than 10 years. At the moment, electric cars are


14 CHAMBERLINK November 2017


relatively expensive and they need to be supported by the Government. So far, the take- up has not been what was expected and it was over- hyped too early. But by 2025, 25 per cent of car sales could be electric.” He said the onset of electric vehicles


presented major economic incentives for the West Midlands. “Jaguar Land Rover are now playing catch-up on electric cars. They have laid down the gauntlet to say they could create tens of thousands of jobs - there is a big opportunity for this region.” He warned that the UK had to act swiftly in


the face of challenges from the likes of Germany, Japan and China, prompting the need to develop new skills and technology. “Half a million electric cars were sold in China last year. Consolidation will be inevitable and we will see new entrants coming in from China. “Taxi and delivery drivers will be affected, we are


not going to need so many car parks. There are issues for dealers and I think that many will have to change their business models. There is time to retrain and reskill people, although that is one of our big failings.” But he held out hope for niche operations such as


Morgan in the electric world. “I am hoping that there will still be the possibility for small niche players to continue to develop the internal combustion engine – there will be markets in the world which will still allow petrol and diesel cars.” Meanwhile, Birmingham University academic


Robert Gregory predicted huge growth in electric car sales – but warned of recycling issues ahead. He said: “At the moment there are probably two million electric cars worldwide but this is set to rocket. “Each carries a half-ton lithium battery. Not only is


this potentially dangerous and polluting waste when discarded, the lithium and cobalt constitute a precious resource which is rarely recovered at the moment, with probably less than five per cent recycling. “It may be that we need better systems of reuse


rather than materials recovery. The law in this area is largely European and we will need to consider our waste management systems post-Brexit.”


‘The direction of travel is clear – we are going to electric because the cost of the cars will come down and their range will improve’


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