Crime Of The Century - A Chilling Look At Crime Statistics In The UK


• monitoring the performance of the criminal justice system • debating policy and operational issues (e.g. criminal justice, crime prevention, policing) • determining operational priorities and allocating resources. 16. One option might therefore be to replace the existing bulletin with a series of commentaries based around the principal uses of the statistics – so that, for example, one report might be produced on how and why crime is changing; a second might examine statistics relevant to the performance of the police and the rest of the criminal justice system; while a third might look at who is at risk from crime, and why. Each report would reproduce relevant parts of the statistical data rather than trying to provide an overview of the whole. 17. Such approaches would require more choices and judgements to be made in writing a narrative. There would need to be a clear, professional and objective commentary, firmly evidence-based and written by people with statistical and criminological expertise who could command the confidence of journalists and the public. The needs of the media and the public – in terms of which messages from the statistics are most relevant – are not necessarily the same as those of policy makers, practitioners in the criminal justice system or professional researchers. Further judgements would be needed about how to address these distinctions. 18. The choices and judgements required could, of themselves, attract questions about impartiality and accusations of political motivation, particularly if the statistical work continued to be undertaken within the Home Office. Arguably it would be better to publish such commentaries separately, but alongside, the statistics. The regular data releases would provide a standard set of figures in a format that was as consistent as possible from one year to the next. The commentaries would draw on the statistics to highlight the main trends and to provide insights as to the most likely explanations. They might also offer independent advice about when not to place too much reliance on a single finding or an apparent change, pending the availability of more evidence. 19. The added focus on uses would help to make the data more relevant to the media and public, improve understanding, and promote confidence. It would be in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which requires producers to: ‘provide factual information about the policy or operational context’ and ‘provide information on the quality and reliability of statistics in relation to the range of potential uses’. It would also be in line with findings from the Authority’s interim report on strengthening user engagement1. This recommends that statistical heads of profession in government should work with experts in the subjects to which the statistics relate, to find ways to explain more clearly in statistical releases the relevance and meaning of the figures. We think that a move in this direction could make a real difference to the way in which the statistics are perceived. 20. While the Home Office would remain free to publish ad hoc analyses and research based on recorded crime, BCS or other sources, we think regular commentaries should be published by the National Statistician (recommendation 2). These would establish a benchmark for independent interpretation and inform further analysis of the statistics. In producing such commentaries, the National Statistician would decide whether to work with statisticians and criminologists in government, and/or external experts.


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