FEaTuRE Sourcing & Procurement
Racing Trades nRoy Lenders, Capgemini
Figure 1
Capgemini Global Trade Flow Index reveals that trade levels are picking up Total Trade -
across the globe Top 23 Countries
(Billion USD)
he growth of developing growth of 7.52 % in trade during Q3 2009,
1497.75
T
countries may be taking a back as government liberalization initiatives and
seat as a driver of global trade. infrastructure investments were put in place.
According to the Capgemini China, (Figure 2) in particular, witnessed posi-
+8.5%
Consulting groups, the latest tive trade growth of 6.5 % on account of ag-
trade figures from the 23 largest trade countries gressive macroeconomic stimulus measures,
globally (from Q3 2009) reveal that trade levels alongside other tax cuts and consumer subsi-
have picked up dramatically from Q2 towards dies which helped boost domestic demand. In
Q3 2009 with an increase of addition to China, India and
8.5% (Figure 1). As trade lev- Russia, which saw 12.1 %
els are a good leading indica- and 11.5 % growth in total
tor for country economies
as a whole, we will see GDP
8.5%
trade respectively, have made
2008 2009
a significant improvement in
levels start growing from Q1
Trade level
their position in the Index
Growth(%)
2010 onwards.
increase in
since before the recession, Value (billions USD)
Where in Q2 2009 global
the world top
driven by effective govern-
trade was primarily driven
23 countries
ment stimulus packages.
Figure 2
by local market growth in The big question for the Total Trade
the emerging countries and next two quarters will be China
by big government stimulus whether the world has indeed (Billion USD)
programs in the BRIC countries, during Q3 reached a turning point where emerging coun-
2009 the big developed economies picked up tries will be driving global economic growth
steam again and were driving significant expan- and power is moving from West to East, or
sion of global trade. The biggest increases in whether the old economic rules drive the mar-
trade were seen in the US, where total trade ket again with growth in emerging countries
grew by 8.6%, against a fall of 2.4% the pre- primarily driven by the export growth towards
vious quarter, with trade benefitting from the the big developed countries.
weak dollar. Stabilization in consumption and Also, the ending of government stimulus
investment, in combination with recovering plans will be a key impact on growth in the
exports and declining imports, has also put next two quarters. As many governments are 2008 2009
European economies on the road to recovery, eagerly waiting to cut their cost levels to get
with the biggest growth in global trade seen in their government finances back-in-order, the
General
Germany (8.6 %), France (8.5 %), the UK (7.7 timing of these cost cuts will need to be very
information
%) and the Netherlands (7.4 %). precise so as not to disturb the current growth
BRIC economies also witnessed a significant in the global economy. Description Values
GDP 1170
Billion
USD
GDP Growth 7.7%
Population 1339
Million
GDP per 6000
Capita USD
(2008)
Rank 2
www.supplychains.com MARCH/APRIL 2010 41
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