49
Behind the fog
The smoking ban will have a far-reaching impact on
health and the environment, but an economist says
the negative impact on business is tricky to predict
by Emanuel Graça
T
he full economic impact of a smoking ban is unclear.
Officials have not provided any estimates and
it is uncertain if restaurants, karaoke bars and
other businesses will see a drop in their number of cus-
tomers.
Economist Albano Martins says the economic
impact of a smoking ban in Macau is hard to esti-
mate.
On one hand, there is no publicly available
data that allows for a clear picture about the size
of the local tobacco-related industry. On the
other, it is hard to estimate the impact a smok-
ing ban will have on restaurants and other busi-
nesses.
“Certainly, there will be a short-term impact.
I think that people and businesses will eventually
adapt to the new rules, like what happened when
smoking was banned in airplanes,” says Martins.
The cost
Worldwide, it is hard to see a clear picture on whether
smoking bans have impacted economies negatively.
In Hong Kong, shortly after a smoking ban was intro-
duced in January 1, 2007, restaurants claimed they had lost
profits and customers.
According to a study commissioned by the Hong Kong
Catering Industry Association (HKCIA) and conducted by public bureaus and universities, and 10 companies had joined
Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 40 percent of owners and the program.
managers of restaurants, cafes and related establishments said No data about the productivity effects of the smoking ban
sales revenue for the first six months of 2007 was down on the have been released.
same period lasting the previous year. The same percentage
said they had had fewer customers and karaoke bars were said Saving on health
to be the worst hit. One thing is certain: smoking bans will help to ease health
care bills.
No interest Estimates say that tobacco costs Hong Kong 7,000 lives
At present, smoking is allowed in most restaurants in Macau. (1,000 due to second-hand smoke) and HK$5.3 billion per year.
In 2007, the government launched a voluntary program to As for the mainland, the World Health Organisation points
encourage restaurants and similar establishments to ban to- out the economic cost of tobacco per year has risen to a stag-
bacco, but it has not been very successful. gering US$5 billion.
Until July 2009, only 65 restaurants had joined the pro- Locally, there are no official projections for the health care
gram and almost one third of these are located in the Tap Seac savings of implementing a smoking ban in Macau.
area. According to a study for the World Bank and the World
Macau has more than 1,500 restaurants and similar estab- Health Organisation published in 2000, estimates of the gross
lishments. According to government research, more than 80 healthcare costs of smoking for high-income countries range
percent of restaurant owners joining the smoke-free program from around 0.10–1.1 percent of GDP. The estimates are high-
said their business had not suffered any setbacks. er in countries where healthcare costs account for a greater
Most customers were also cooperative, they added. share of GDP.
Meanwhile, the government launched a similar smoke- In the case of Macau, that means that the gross healthcare
free voluntary program for workplaces. As of June 2009, 47 costs of smoking could be as high as MOP1.9 billion per year.
March 2010
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