34 Economic Trends by José I. Duarte
Contributions to GDP:
TABLE 1 - Main sectors (top 4) cumulative share of GDP Main sectors
MFG Trade Banking Real Estate Bus Serv Gambling It is an obvious fact, and it is often
80
stated, that the economy of Macau
is mainly driven by gaming. Some
70
people worry about this almost
mono-dependence. It is therefore
60
interesting to try to evaluate how
concentrated the local economy
50
is and to grasp how it has been
changing over the last few years.
40
TaBlE 1
Using a common indicator to analyze
the concentration of markets,
30
adapted here to the shares of the
various sectors in the GDP, some
20
features are readily apparent (Table
1). Note that the combined share
10
of the top 4 sectors in every year
gaming rose notably if compared
0
with 1999 – the lowest point –
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 but is not much above the values
for the mid-90’s.
TaBlE 2
But, gambling, the undisputed leader
of the pack, is becoming ever more
so. In just over a decade, its share
rose by more than 15% to more than
TABLE 2 - Main growth drivers differential growth
half of GDP. That increase alone is
bigger than any other sector. as a
Mfg Util Const Trade Transport Fin Game Adm result, Table 2 shows a striking effect.
The ratio between the gambling
70 sector and the three next top sectors
has risen wildly, from values below
60
1.5 in the last part of the previous
decade, to values over 2.5 and, at
50 times, closer to 3.5, in recent years.
The economy is certainly becoming
40
more polarized around that sector.
TaBlE 3
30
Table 3 shows, however, that other
sectors have at times shown great
20
dynamism. If we calculate the
10
differences between average growth
rate and the rates of the various
0
sectors, we see that the picture is
more diverse (Table 3). at different
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
times other sectors have grown
significantly above the average
without any clear pattern occurring
in the period. (Note that the boom
in construction in recent years was
TABLE 3 - Main sectors relative size ratio
so spectacular that if the value for
1995 was shown on the table, all the
other series would be so compressed
as to be undistinguishable). But, of
3.5
course, even when it grows below
the average, its contribution to the
absolute growth of the economy
3
dwarfs that of much smaller sectors
with higher growth rates. Note
that sector was, in this sense, an
2.5
alternative driver of the economy in
the timeframe shown.
2
1.5
1
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
March 2010
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