35
The individual visa
TABLE 1 - Visa’s impact 1
From time to time, there is
Tourist Excursionist Guests CN visa speculation about the changes in
7000
the mainland visa policy towards
the region. Those changes have
occurred often without warning and
6000
have been a source of concern
in various circles. a lot has been
5000
said about the supposed effects
of those changes in the number of
4000
visitors and, by extension, or so the
argument seems to be, the economic
growth of the region and in particular,
3000
the revenues of the gaming sector.
The data has never been too
2000 favorable to those more or less
mechanic connections. as time goes
1000
by, they seem to get weaker. let us
see why, using the quarterly data for
the last two full calendar years, the
0
ones for which all the data used here
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 is comparable.
TaBlE 1
Table 1 indeed shows indeed a
sustained decrease in the number
of visitors using the individual
visa. That seems to confirm that a
restricting policy has indeed been
TABLE 2 - Visa’s impact 2
at work (although other reasons
might also contribute to that effect).
GameRev Guest Visitors CN_visa
But, whatever the reason, such
a decrease appears essentially
130 unrelated in any significant measure
to the volume of every category
120
of visitors, and they represent a
110
decreasing share of the total number
of visitors. No effect is noticeable
100
either at the level of hotel guests.
90
TaBlE 2
Table 2, makes it even more clear,
80
as the changes over time were
70
measured in index form, allowing
60
for a better comparison. That table
shows that a clear, if any, relationship
50 also fails to materialize concerning
40
the level of expenditure by the
chinese visitors and the individual
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4
visa holding visitors. again, no
significant connection seems to exist
between the changes in the number
of individual visa visitors and the
other variables.
TaBlE 3
TABLE 3 - Visa’s impact 3
Finally, as shown in Table 3, no
effect is evident in relation to the
NSE_CN SE_CN PDE_CN CN_visa
expenditure patterns of the visitors
130
originating from china. Neither the
shopping expense, nor the non-
120
shopping expenses, nor the per diem
110
or daily expenses seem influenced
by that factor. In sum, the changes
100 in the individual visa policy do not
show any relevant impact on either
90
the volume of gambling revenues,
80
the total number of visitors or hotel
guests or the levels of expenditure
70
of the chinese visitors.
60
Too much ado…?
50
40
08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4
March 2010
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