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DoMInIque MoIsI visiting profEssor at harvard univErsity
the final decline of the west
in 2040/2050, will dEmographErs spEak of “thE whitE man’s lonElinEss”
in thE way historians oncE rEfErrEd to “thE whitE man’s BurdEn”
to dEscriBE thE so-callEd “impErial rEsponsiBilitiEs” of somE EuropEan nations?
emography is not an exact science. countless dire “save the planet,” or what is taking place before our eyes with
predictions, from that of Malthus to that of the club of the challenge to the euro posed by the weakness of some of its
rome, have been proven wrong. But, according to a member states, most prominently Greece.
recent and very convincing essay published in the magazine In copenhagen, Europe came with a common and
Foreign affairs, a dual demographic and economic trend is responsible position. The EU was “showing the way” to other
taking place that will result in spectacular shifts by the middle great actors and behaved as the “good pupil” of the world
of this century. The Western world will represent only 12% class. The Union was ignored, with the US and china choosing
of the world’s population, with Europeans reduced to 6%. (In to disagree over its head. Europe must realize that it cannot
1913, a year before the outbreak of World War I, Europe was be seen as a model for anyone if no one any longer takes it
slightly more populated than china.) Economically, the West seriously as a global actor.
will account for around 30% of global output – a level that
corresponds to Europe’s share in the eighteenth century and
down from 68% in 1950.
What we are witnessing can be seen is a return to the
past, with the West returning to its old place in the world before
the start of china’s long process of historical decline at the
beginning of the nineteenth century. The West’s long period of
global dominance is ending, encouraged and accelerated by
its own mistakes and irresponsible behavior. We are entering a
new historical cycle, in which there will be proportionally fewer
Westerners, more africans and Middle Easterners, and – with
greater relevance economically and strategically – many more
asians.
It is with these figures in mind that one must consider Barack
Obama’s decision not to attend the next European-american
summit that was due to take place in Madrid in May. It would
be tempting to use a formula coined during the cold War to
describe the comparative evolution of the United States and the
Confronted with revolutionary demographic and economic
Soviet Union and to apply the notion of “competitive decline” to
transformations, Americans and Europeans should behave
the relationship between the US and Europe. an america that
in a much more responsible manner. Instead of ignoring
may be undergoing a process of relative if not absolute decline
the other (the American way) or lamenting a wounded ego
chooses to ignore a Europe that in US eyes is no longer a
(the European way), they should confront the common
problem compared with asia or the Middle East, and that offers
challenges they face as a result of a globalization process
little help in finding solutions to the problems that most vex
that they are no longer able to master
americans.
In a hasty and excessively provocative manner, some in the But how can you be taken seriously by others if you do not
american media are starting to speak of Obama as “a second take yourself seriously? The EU’s new high representative for
Jimmy carter” and predict that he will serve only one term. What external affairs, Baroness catherine ashton, tried to justify her
is more serious is the impression that the american political failure to go to haiti in the immediate aftermath of its terrible
system, with its inability to transcend party divisions and forge earthquake by saying, “I am neither a nurse nor a fire person.”
national consensus, is increasingly sclerotic. lack of such skills did not keep US Secretary of State hillary
america’s political institutions have aged like the country’s clinton from traveling to the scene of the devastation to show
infrastructure. They were devised more than two centuries ago here support and concern.
for a mostly agrarian world. Today, they need to be amended confronted with revolutionary demographic and economic
and rejuvenated. But that may not be possible, given the transformations, americans and Europeans should behave in
sacrosanctity with which many americans regard the US a much more responsible manner. Instead of ignoring the other
constitution. (the american way) or lamenting a wounded ego (the European
as for the European Union, the problem is not what will way), they should confront the common challenges they face as
not happen in Madrid. The EU’s problem is much more what a result of a globalization process that they are no longer able to
happened in copenhagen last December at the summit to master.
March 2010
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