an increase of 25,300 tonnes or 3 per cent. Putting the figure in a wider context, output in October 2013 was the third highest for the month in question going all the way back to 1992. It looks, on first sight, as if the effects of the eighteen months of


appalling weather in 2012 and the first half of 2013 are still reverberating around the industry although these effects are sure to diminish with the passing of time. Cattle and calf feed output was up by 11,200 tonnes or 3.2 per cent in October 2013 compared with the same month in 2012, with the major growth interestingly taking place in dairy compounds. However, while cattle and calf feed output was at its highest October level of output for eighteen years, sheep and lamb feed output was down by 6,600 tonnes or 17 per cent on the same basis of comparison with breeding and finishing compounds the major losers. Output of pig feeds was up by a modest 900 tonnes while poultry feed production rose by 5,700 tonnes or 2.2 per cent with the largest contribution coming from broiler feed production, up by 7,900 tonnes or 7.6 per cent, a figure which tends to confirm the view that the recession has increased the demand for chickens relative to other meats. Looking at the cumulative data for the first ten months of the year,


feed production was at its highest since records for feed output in Great Britain started to be kept in their present form in 1992. Despite the downturn in October, output of sheep and lamb feeds, at a cumulative 784.000 tonnes was also at a record high (record meaning since 1992) as was cattle and calf feed output. Interestingly, so was poultry feed output, with broiler feed leading the pack. We shall have to wait until February 2014 before knowing how the


year as a whole turned out but, at least in volume, if not in any other terms, the feed industry in Great Britain would seem to be heading for a promising year in 2013. The weather, of course, has played an important part in influencing


feed production in Great Britain and Northern Ireland in 2013. As regards the weather in November and December, across the UK as a whole in November saw temperatures of around 0.7°C lower than normal with rainfall also in short supply, particularly in Northern Ireland which received only 57 per cent of the province’s normal precipitation as defined by the average rainfall of 1981 – 2010. In contrast, December saw average temperatures in December 1.8°C higher than normal. Rainfall was also in plentiful supply with the UK as a whole receiving 154 per cent of its normal precipitation; Scotland was particularly damp. November and December are not particularly renowned for their


grass growing properties; however, it will be interesting to see whether the weather had any effects on feed production when the November and December data become available. As regards January, our consultant and researcher Roger Dean, who spent the festive season in his native Cornish fastness, reports that he cannot recall such a protracted spell of severe weather.


PRICE TRENDS This column monitors prices that are of concern to the industry on a weekly basis. The International Grains Council publishes working day reports on two wheats: Hard Red Winter FOB US Gulf and Standard


PAGE 6 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2014 FEED COMPOUNDER


French Wheat at Rouen. Also published are No. 3 US Yellow Corn – that’s maize to you and me – FOB Gulf and French Barley, also at Rouen. Two soybean prices are published: US No. 2 soybeans FOB Gulf and Argentine soybeans Up River. Finally, IGC publishes its useful Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) which is itself composed of sub-indices for cereals and oilseeds. This column abstracts data each Monday for the preceding Friday and these are averaged up for the month in question. AHDB’s Home Grown Cereals Authority collects a wide range of


international grain and oilseeds prices including material originating in the Black Sea, the US, Canada and Australia. This column collects these data on Tuesday relating to the preceding Friday and these are duly averaged for the month. Looking at the IGC’s Grain and Oilseeds index, this appears


to have peaked most recently in August 2012 at 328.80 – January 2000 equalling 100. It fell through the 300 barrier in December 2012 but remained in the 280 – 299 range until the onset of the Northern Hemisphere harvest in the summer of 2013. Between August and December 2013, however, the GOI has averaged 257 with very little variation around that mean. As far as cereals are concerned, Hard Red Winter wheat has been


stuck in the low $300 area since June 2013 with a temporary surge in October while French wheat has strengthened since September on the back of export demand. As the size of the US maize crop became apparent, FOB prices fell sharply in August last year and, apart from a slight blip in November, have stuck at around the $210 mark. In common with French wheat, French barley prices have firmed since September. US soybeans FOB Gulf peaked at $603 in June 2013, fell in July and August as the shape of the USA crop became clearer, bottomed in October at $519.50 but have since firmed in common with their Argentine equivalents, although the latter have also been affected by political rather than market factors. The Christmas and New Year celebrations appear to have


disrupted HGCA’s publishing timetable in that data for the last week of December was not available when this edition of Feed Compounder went to the printers. However, and for no immediately apparent reason, the prices for those two marker world wheat prices – Hard and Soft Red Winter Wheats FOB US Gulf – jumped in October, the former by almost $21 and the latter by $19; both wheats have since slipped back. US Yellow Corn values FOB Gulf peaked at $306 in March 2013, following the drought-hit 2012 harvest and then eased back, falling to $210 in October since when they have firmed marginally; Argentine maize displayed a broadly similar patter, falling back to $204 in December 2013. No. 2 US Yellow soybeans peaked at $583 in May 2013, fell back sharply in June since when they have moved erratically, falling to $515 in August and $519 in October; in December, they averaged $539. Although this year’s harvests incorporate a promise of lower feed


raw material costs, the picture is far from crystal clear and feed material prices have not fallen as far as expected or looked for. This may reflect strong demand for livestock products and, therefore, feed materials, particularly in emerging economies. More on this in future editions of Feed Compounder during 2014.


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