FOOD FUTURIST The
A Couple of Billion Reasons Why Africa is a Priority for the Future
Take a look at the tables below, showing the list of the sixteen most populated countries in 2010, 2050 and 2100, according to the UN. Immediately, some interesting information appears. China is already
reaching a plateau and it will decline in future. Most of Asia will have reached its peak of population by mid-century. India’s population is going to keep growing in the coming decades and with regards to food security, the country has still lots of work ahead. However, with the growth of its middle class, the situation should improve gradually in the future. The continent that will see the strongest population growth is Africa. Between now and the end of the century, eight countries will account to over half of the world’s population increase from currently 7.2 billion to 10.9 billion, with six of these countries being on the African continent. These eight countries are Nigeria, India, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, Uganda, Ethiopia and the USA. It is worth noticing that the population of Nigeria will pass the population of the USA before mid-century. For a country the size of Texas, the challenge is huge, especially considering the current political instability. Other small countries such as Tanzania and Uganda are going have to cope with a very strong population increase. The challenge for Africa is clear. Most of the countries with
2010
Country World China India USA
Indonesia Brazil
Pakistan
Bangladesh Nigeria Russia Japan Mexico
Philippines Vietnam Germany Ethiopia Egypt
Top 16
Population (millions) 6,794 1,337 1,180 309 231 193 169 162 155 142 128 108 92 86 82 79 78
4,531 PAGE 34 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2014 FEED COMPOUNDER
% of world population 100 19.6 17.3 4.5 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
66.7
Country World India
China
Nigeria USA
Indonesia Pakistan Brazil
Bangladesh Ethiopia
Philippines Mexico
RD Congo Tanzania Egypt
Russia Japan
Top 16
anticipated strong population increases are poor countries that already have serious difficulties to feed themselves. African agriculture has not followed the pace of other regions in terms of productivity and yields. Many rural communities are poor and can hardly subsist. The flip side of Africa having lagged in agricultural development is that it has huge potential to increase its food production. At the beginning of the current decade, the FAO estimated the area of unexploited arable land in Africa to be roughly the size of continental USA. By increasing acreage in production with higher yields, there is plenty of room to increase production volumes to sufficient levels. Food production is the not the only problem. To solve hunger, these countries must eliminate poverty. People who have enough money to buy food are not hungry. Only the poor are. And to have enough money, one needs a decent paying job. For the future of Africa, employment is really where the battle will be won or lost. Between now and the end of the century, Africa will have to create 600 million new jobs, and to get jobs, people need to have the proper education and training. They also need to be healthy. As the expectation is that most of the population will be living in cities, another challenging goal will be to build these urban centres and all the necessary infrastructure to move goods and people. Such megacities will also need
2050
Population (millions) 9,551 1,620 1,385 440 401 321 271 231 202 188 157 156 155 129 122 121 108
6,007
% of world population 100 17.0 14.5 4.6 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1
62.9
Christophe Pelletier
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