to be food secure and urban planning will need to take food distribution and food production into account. Education, health care, construction, infrastructure, jobs, food and agriculture… This sounds like building an entire continent doesn’t it? And that is exactly what it is. Expect Africa to be a huge construction site! Action must be taken and properly phased out over the next nine decades. If the challenges are many, so are the opportunities and the benefits in the long term. So what does it take to make this happen? The answer to this
question is rather simple. The implementation and proper execution is less so. It will take money, and a lot of it. There is plenty of that, though. The Central bankers of developed countries did not have to think too long to start printing a couple of trillion dollars, emitting bonds and doing the quantitative easing as needed to save the financial sector when the system was imploding in 2008 and since then. Building Africa would not require more money than that. If there has ever been a need for Keynesian economics, the Africa of the coming decades is it! Not only would the money pumped in the system allow projects to happen, but it would also be the basis to create the many jobs that will be required to build all that is needed. The challenge for Africans is to have and to provide the training required to qualify for the jobs come. To rise from its current situation, the task is somewhat comparable
to rebuilding Europe after World War II. Both the Europeans and the Americans who provided financial help then can tell the Africans what a great period of prosperity followed for them. Africa needs a Marshall plan of its own, but it also must convince the rest of the world that it will put the money to work. And that is where the second crucial component of success – or failure – resides: leadership. Africa needs strong visionary leadership with integrity that will not only make things happen, but also will keep energies focused on a long-term effort. Another eighty-six years to complete it all before the end of the century will not be too many. Africa will have to bring forward a new generation of leaders that will follow a course that is quite different from the one many of their predecessors
2100
Country World India
China
Nigeria USA
Indonesia Tanzania Pakistan
DR Congo Ethiopia Uganda Nigeria Brazil
Philippines Bangladesh Kenya Mexico Top 16
Population (millions) 10,854 1,547 1,086 914 462 315 276 263 262 243 205 204 195 188 182 160 140
6,642
% of world population 100 14.3 10.0 8.4 4.3 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3
61.2
followed. Encouraging investors will require fighting corruption, starting with a leadership by example. Corruption is a theme that I hear regularly from businesses that would like to engage in Africa, but that feel reluctant to do so for that very reason. Endeavours may be risky, but they have the potential to be quite rewarding for those who will dare and have the patience to wait to reap the fruits. As for anything else anywhere else, there will be success stories and some failures, but that is the way the world goes. It will be important to factor in disappointments and a percentage of mistakes and failures to assess the true future return. One thing is sure: searching for a quick return is probably not the best strategy over there. Africa is diverse. The challenges will vary per country and so will
the quality of the leadership. I expect the political geography of Africa to change between now and 2100 (actually much earlier than that). Borders are inherited from the independence from the colonial power and they do not always reflect a good partition for the future. Sometimes this may happen peacefully and sometimes unfortunately not. Note that I never said it will be easy. Nonetheless, the continent must move forward and the countries must develop their economies. Although it will not be simple, I am optimistic about future changes in
Africa. In my limited dealings with young professionals from Africa, I can say that this new generation is highly motivated and keen to succeed. In my contacts, I have many bright, smart and well-educated young African professionals in the field of food and agriculture. I enjoy their energy and desire to change the course of the future. They have travelled and they know quite a bit about food production in other places. They push relentlessly to bring new dynamics and I do believe that they will make good things happen. But they will need all the help and support to have access to the right resources and knowledge to succeed. For some reason, since I started the Food Futurist, I have always
considered that Africa will play an important role in the future of food and agriculture. I have believed in its potential and I have never been shy about saying so. This has sometimes created interesting responses such as surprise or disbelief from my audiences and clients. I guess I was a little early with my predictions, but I have had the pleasure to hear some who looked at me as if I had a sunstroke who now advocate in favour of Africa’s food and agriculture potential. It just took them a year or two to come to the same conclusion. I guess the first part of my work has been done. Now, I really would like to be involved with organizations that want to build solid pragmatic market-oriented food production in Africa.
Christophe Pelletier is one of the world’s experts on the future of food and agriculture. During his studies and his career, he has been active in Beef, Dairy, Animal Feed, Nutrition, Pork, Poultry and Seafood. He combines extensive knowledge with practical hands-on business experience.
Christophe works as an independent agricultural futurist, strategist, consultant and speaker. His mission is to help his clients explore, shape and create the future through presentations, seminars and research. You can find more at
www.hfgfoodfuturist.com
FEED COMPOUNDER JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2014 PAGE 35
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