NEW YEAR LOOK AHEAD The year 2014 is upon us and, believe it or not, we shall soon be moving into the next reporting season 2014-15. However, there is still a fair chunk of 2013-14 to get our teeth
into, a process that was not helped by the absence of USDA’s October issue of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) which fell victim to the squabble in the US Congress over Obamacare. Nevertheless, and since the last issue of Feed Compounder, there have been two editions of WASDE, in November and December; the latest edition, published on 10 January 2014, was too late for inclusion in this edition of Feed Compounder. USDA started off its 2013-2014 forecasting season in May 2013
with projected world wheat production of 701.1 million tonnes and end-of-season stocks of 186.38 million tonnes, equivalent to 98 Days Consumption Equivalent (DCE). This was a minor improvement on 2012-13’s outcome of 94 DCE but, and as this column observed in connection with projections made by the International Grains Council, was a relatively small rebuilding of world inventories, particularly as regards the three seasons 2009-10 through 2011-12 when they averaged 110 DCE. In the next three updates, USDA grew more pessimistic and it was
only in December 2013 that they raised their projection of world end- of-season stocks to 95 DCE, still relatively modest in terms of restoring world inventories to a more appropriate level. As regards maize, USDA started the 2012-13 forecasting season
off in May 2012 with an estimated world crop of 945.8 million tonnes and end-of-season stocks of 152.3 million tonnes, equivalent to 61 DCE compared to the 2011-12 outcome of 57 DCE; in other words, pencilling in a small rebuilding of world inventories. In June 2012, USDA increased its estimate of world output by a little over 4 million tonnes to 949.9 million tonnes and its projection of end-of-season stocks to 62 DCE. That projection, however, was shortly to be torpedoed by one of, if not
Editor’s Notebook is sponsored by Compound Feed Engineering Ltd
the worst drought that the US had experienced in half-a-century. The next four months were to see continuing downward revisions to USDA’s estimate of maize production in 2012-13; the difference between USDA’s June 2012 highpoint and its lowest estimate for 2012-13 published in October 2012 was a massive 110.9 million tonnes. In fact, USDA progressively improved its estimate of world wheat production in 2012-13 after its October low point but the outcome in May 2013 still remained at 92.8 million tonnes lower than in the heady days of June 2012. In the end, USDA’s estimate of the 2012-13 maize harvest
bottomed out with end-of-season stocks of 57 DCE, not the lowest on record but following two years of fairly meagre world inventories relative to consumption. As regards maize prices, the US supply and demand situation is probably the most pertinent factor. The outcome in 2012-13, of 29 DCE, was the lowest since the 1995-96 outcome of 25 DCE; the average over the fifty-odd years over which this columns data covers is 101 DCE. USDA started off its 2013-14 forecasting run for maize in May
2013 with a prediction of 965.9 million tonnes with world end-of- season stocks of 154.6 million tonnes, equivalent to 61 DCE (curiously the same as their opening gambit for 2012-13). This projection was successively trimmed in the next four months but so was that for world maize consumption, resulting in little or no change to the level of end- of-season stocks relative to usage. Then came October when the US government ran out of money due to internecine warfare in Congress between Democrats and Republicans. In November and December, USDA substantially upgraded their projection of world maize production resulting in a substantial uplift in projected world end-of-season stocks; these stood at 64 DCE in December 2013. This figure compares with a ten year average of 62 DCE. This column believes that the direction of USDA’s 2013-14 harvest
prediction points towards the bears in general terms. However, prices have remained strangely resilient and it may be the world economy in general and recovery in the some so-called developed countries in particular is exerting significant demand pressure on prices. More on this in the next issue.
www.cfegroup.com PAGE 4 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2014 FEED COMPOUNDER
GREAT BRITAIN FEED OUTPUT Total production of compounds, blends and concentrates in Great Britain in October 2013 amounted to 861,300 tonnes, according to DEFRA data released on 5 December – a remarkably early release date giving rise to the likelihood of a significant revision subsequently. This total compares with 836,000 tonnes in October 2012 and represents
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68