62 CHAPTER 3


Ex Ante Impact of GM Crops in SSA


The adoption of GM varieties worldwide has expanded considerably since they were first commercialized in 1996. Originally only four countries approved the adoption and use of transgenic crops covering an area of just above 11 million hectares. In the case of cotton, GM varieties have been com- mercialized in 10 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Mexico, South Africa, the United States, and most recently, Burkina Faso. In parallel, the areas of non-GM conventional cotton have been decreas- ing in favor of Bt and HT cotton. James (2011) estimates that in 2011, more than 68 percent of world cotton was planted to GM varieties, including both open-pollinated varieties and hybrids. In 2009 the International Food Policy Research Institute published a


review of the economic impact of these crops in developing economies and the methods used to evaluate this impact (Smale et al. 2009). The review revealed that very few studies have addressed the potential or actual impact of GM crops on smallholders in SSA. Aside from numerous publications of the actual impact of Bt cotton and Bt maize in South Africa, the number of ex ante eval- uations is still limited in Africa. In East Africa De Groote et al. (2003) evalu- ated the potential for Bt maize; Edmeades and Smale (2006) discussed the potential impact of a GM banana on smallholder farmers in the Uganda high- lands. In West Africa, Horna et al. (2008) assessed ex ante GM vegetables in Ghana. More recently Vitale at al. (2008, 2010) have documented the impact of Bt cotton in Burkina Faso. Given the importance of cotton in SSA and the availability of the


technology, most of the ex ante evaluations have concentrated on GM cotton, especially Bt cotton. In West Africa for instance, Cabanilla, Abdoulaye, and Sanders (2005) developed a linear-programming model to assess the potential cost to West Africa, Mali in particular, of not adopting Bt cotton. Elbehri and MacDonald (2004) and Langyintuo and Lowenberg-DeBoer (2006) have carried out evaluations mainly based on trade models. Most recently, a study by Falck-Zepeda, Horna, and Smale (2008) examined the potential of Bt cotton for the West Africa region with emphasis on Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal, and Togo using an eco- nomic surplus approach. These studies conclude that there would be significant losses in economic


benefits if Bt cotton is not adopted. Several of these studies also point to important institutional issues as significant determinants of the level and social distribution of benefits. A key institutional issue seems to be the decision


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128  |  Page 129  |  Page 130  |  Page 131  |  Page 132  |  Page 133  |  Page 134  |  Page 135  |  Page 136  |  Page 137  |  Page 138  |  Page 139  |  Page 140  |  Page 141  |  Page 142  |  Page 143  |  Page 144  |  Page 145  |  Page 146  |  Page 147  |  Page 148  |  Page 149  |  Page 150  |  Page 151  |  Page 152  |  Page 153  |  Page 154  |  Page 155  |  Page 156  |  Page 157  |  Page 158  |  Page 159  |  Page 160  |  Page 161  |  Page 162  |  Page 163  |  Page 164  |  Page 165  |  Page 166  |  Page 167  |  Page 168  |  Page 169  |  Page 170  |  Page 171  |  Page 172  |  Page 173  |  Page 174  |  Page 175  |  Page 176  |  Page 177  |  Page 178  |  Page 179  |  Page 180  |  Page 181  |  Page 182  |  Page 183  |  Page 184  |  Page 185  |  Page 186  |  Page 187  |  Page 188  |  Page 189  |  Page 190  |  Page 191  |  Page 192  |  Page 193  |  Page 194  |  Page 195  |  Page 196  |  Page 197  |  Page 198  |  Page 199  |  Page 200  |  Page 201  |  Page 202  |  Page 203  |  Page 204  |  Page 205  |  Page 206  |  Page 207  |  Page 208  |  Page 209  |  Page 210  |  Page 211  |  Page 212  |  Page 213  |  Page 214  |  Page 215  |  Page 216  |  Page 217  |  Page 218  |  Page 219  |  Page 220  |  Page 221  |  Page 222  |  Page 223  |  Page 224  |  Page 225  |  Page 226  |  Page 227  |  Page 228  |  Page 229  |  Page 230  |  Page 231  |  Page 232  |  Page 233  |  Page 234  |  Page 235  |  Page 236  |  Page 237  |  Page 238  |  Page 239  |  Page 240  |  Page 241  |  Page 242  |  Page 243  |  Page 244  |  Page 245  |  Page 246  |  Page 247  |  Page 248  |  Page 249  |  Page 250  |  Page 251  |  Page 252  |  Page 253  |  Page 254  |  Page 255  |  Page 256  |  Page 257  |  Page 258  |  Page 259  |  Page 260  |  Page 261  |  Page 262  |  Page 263  |  Page 264  |  Page 265  |  Page 266