148 CHAPTER 5


because of GM sensitivity was ascertained and expressed as a percentage of the total agricultural food and feeds exported. The share of the past exports that are GM-sensitive commodities con-


sists of agricultural commodities whose GM counterparts have been approved globally for commercial planting. They include soybeans, maize, cotton, canola, squash, rice, papaya, tomatoes, and Irish potatoes. The worst-case scenario of the analysis assumed that if the six targeted


COMESA countries commercialized the aforementioned products, all exports of food and feed products associated with the crops in question (second col- umn of Table 5.1) would be rejected by all importing destinations world- wide. Naturally, this assumption is exaggerated, given that many countries do not regulate imports of GM products and even those that do—including European countries—import large volumes of approved GM products. The findings revealed that the proportion of exports immediately at risk would be 8.5 percent for Egypt, 2.2 percent for Ethiopia, 1.1 percent for Kenya, 6.2 per- cent for Tanzania, 6.5 percent for Uganda, and 6.3 percent for Zambia. Assuming that only the EU would reject the exports, the level of immediate


risk for Egypt would be about 4 percent and the rest of the countries 1 percent or less, as shown in Table 5.2 (Paarlberg et al. 2006). This low level of immediate trading risk exposure stems from the fact that


most of the potential GM commodities go to other African countries. Thus, continental and regional demand largely exceeds external demand for the selected products. Although this result does not preclude the possibility that


TABLE 5.1 GM (genetically modified) crops and products included in the Regional Approach to Biotechnology and Biosafety Policy in Eastern and Southern Africa project


Agricultural crops for which GM varieties are approved for commercial planting in at least one country


Soybeans Maize Cotton


Canola (rape) Squash Papaya Tomatoes Irish potatoes Sugarbeets


Possible GM export products


Live animals Meat Dairy, eggs, and natural honey Potatoes Tomatoes Papaya Squash Soybean and rape, including oil, flour, and meal Maize


Maize flour, meal, and bran Maize (hulled) Cottonseed, including oil and cake


Source: Paarlberg et al. (2006).


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