150 CHAPTER 5
but whose adoption is found to be necessary in a globally competitive market. Assuming it is productivity enhancing, and knowing that all major countries have adopted GM cotton, there is a significant opportunity cost of nonadop- tion of GM cotton for countries in the region (Bouët and Gruère 2011). In the case of GM food and feed crops, Anderson and Jackson (2005) use
a global general equilibrium model to simulate scenarios of adoption with a focus on Africa south of the Sahara. Their results show that GM crops gener- ate positive welfare gains to African countries south of the Sahara. The study also shows that welfare gains associated with adoption of GM crops outweigh the gains tied to greater market access in restrictive export destinations, such as the EU. The estimated gains would be slightly lower if the EU’s policies con- tinue to effectively restrict imports of affected crop products from countries that decide to adopt GMOs in Africa (Anderson and Jackson 2005). These results are generally consistent with one of the other papers in the
literature, and they do not seem to depend too much on the crop studied or the adoption level. Because of the low trade flows and the fact that the gains of GM crops are mostly captured domestically, African countries are found to gain regardless of regulatory barriers. Yet at the same time, a few of these papers focus on potential trade impli-
cations within Africa. Anderson and Jackson (2005) is the exception. It shows that a GM ban in countries of the Southern African Development Community to save rents from exports to Europe results in lower gains than would be obtained by GM crop adoption.3 Still, regional restrictions can matter, as shown by recent developments in South Africa. Some countries in southern Africa have adopted (transitional or seemingly established) strict import policies on GM food. This did not prevent South Africa from success- fully adopting and marketing GM maize in the past (Gruère and Sengupta 2010), but the situation changed in 2010 with an unexpectedly large harvest, leading to excessive marketable surplus. The combination of high GM maize adoption and the continued presence of GM import barriers in the region resulted in large domestic stocks that traders have had trouble selling, despite a significant maize shortage in parts of East Africa. As a result, the South African maize price dropped, while Kenya and other countries had to pur- chase high premium non-GM maize for imports. This contrasting example underlines the role of regional integration, which is the subject of the following section.
3 Langyintuo and Lowenberg-DeBoer (2006) study the trade effect of differential adoption of a GM cowpea in various countries of West Africa, but they do not model regulatory barriers.
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