122 CHAPTER 4


MISTICs per bunch for the potential GM banana opponents’ households were generally low, ranging approximately between US$0.15 and US$0.36. Thus, if the government is to address the concerns of the potential GM banana oppo- nents, it will not exceed the potential forgone benefits (US$200) estimated when addressing question 1. There will be still enough to compensate for the negative effects if a fungus-resistant GM banana is introduced. The aggre- gate welfare showed improvement in welfare over status quo for all scenarios, which is highest when a GM banana with large bunches and medium benefits is proposed. Thus, if a fungus-resistant GM banana with such attributes is now introduced, its introduction may result in strong opposition from the poten- tial GM banana opponents’ segment of the population, which is composed of mainly urban consumers. Based on the empirical findings discussed in this section, the follow-


ing conclusions can be derived. First, the GM banana technology is likely to improve overall welfare in Uganda, but we need to think carefully about those who may lose from the introduction of this technology. Thinking about this beforehand can reduce the loss. But the big question is how do we maximize the benefits and reduce cost and risk? Second, a comprehensive cost–benefit analysis, using different approaches, would be of great importance for assess- ing the potential benefits and costs of introducing new technologies—such as GM bananas. The net social costs or benefits of most GM crops are likely to be crop-specific, especially in terms of food and environmental safety issues. Introduction strategies would need to consider the distribution of potential costs, benefits, and risk for these new GM crops before a decision to introduce them is made.


Policy Implications


The findings in this chapter demonstrate several implications for different stakeholders in the banana industry in Uganda, and in Africa in general. First, the calculation of the MISTICs considers explicitly possible long-term effects of GM bananas. The results indicate that with each year of delay in the intro- duction of a GM banana, Uganda loses between about US$179 million and US$365 million. The MISTICs are about US$176 million or more. Only if the real average annual irreversible costs of planting a GM banana would be as high, or higher than, the irreversible benefits, should the release be delayed. We have found no evidence yet that this will be the case. Given the poten- tial and significant economic benefits from the introduction of a GM banana,


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