GENETICALLY MODIFIED ORGANISMS, EXPORTS, AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION 147


Still, even accounting for uncertainties, analyzing recent trade data can help


discriminate cases that represent immediate or short-run export risks from others based on discourse rather than data. As noted in the previous section, some reported cases have linked seemingly irrational commercial risks to reg- ulatory decisions. Finding that a country has a large trade relationship with a GM-regulating country is useful for managing risks and avoiding immediate export losses. For instance, Thailand and Vietnam, aware of the importance of non-GM rice preferences of major importers, decided to ban any experi- ment on GM rice to avoid any possible export loss (Gruère and Sengupta 2009). The presence of past trade with large importing countries that regulate or avoid GM food, although not necessarily predicting the future, provides useful information for decisionmakers.2 With these caveats in mind, an influential economic analysis was con-


ducted on the trade implications of GMOs in Africa under the aegis of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) (Paarlberg et al. 2006). The Regional Approach to Biotechnology and Biosafety Policy in Eastern and Southern Africa project was initiated to address concerns that transboundary movement of GMOs in the COMESA region might impact trade among member states unless a regional policy mechanism was put in place to mitigate such eventualities. The project covered six case study coun- tries: Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. The study analyzed the short-run trade ramifications of introducing and


commercializing GMOs that are available globally under recent trade flows to current markets. The magnitude of potential immediate trade losses, based on 2003 bilateral trade data, was illustrated by examining the total value of agricultural commodity exports and the proportion of this export value that risks being rejected in market destinations that treat GM com- modities with sensitivity (either due to regulations or buyers’ preferences). That GMOs can affect trade cannot be disputed. Consignments of agricul- tural exports originating from a country that has commercialized GMOs are treated with suspicion and are generally expected to contain GMOs, even in cases where such consignments contain only GM-free products. The Regional Approach to Biotechnology and Biosafety Policy in Eastern and Southern Africa study computed the potential value of conventional agri- cultural food and feed products exported to various destinations from the six case study countries in 2003. The proportion that is likely to be rejected


2 Moreover, given the political realities, short-run considerations are much more powerful in the eyes of decisionmakers than long-term potential issues.


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