GENETICALLY MODIFIED ORGANISMS, EXPORTS, AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION 149


TABLE 5.2 Immediate export losses if all European importers shunned all “possibly GM” or “possibly GM-tainted” products


Agricultural food and feed-product exports, 2003 Total


Country Egypt


Ethiopia Kenya


Tanzania Uganda Zambia


(US$ million) 938 450


1,291 408 116 119


Source: Paarlberg et al. (2006). Note: GM = genetically modified; US$ = US dollars.


the situation may change, it indicates that the discussed GM products would not face an immediate threat.


Trade Simulations


Several research publications have focused on modeling the economic effects of GM crop adoption in the presence of trade restrictions in developed coun- tries (see Smale et al. 2009). Most of these papers studied the effects of adop- tion at the global or regional level, and only a few focused on the effects in Africa. Almost all of these papers used a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effect of adoption or nonadoption of GM crops in spe- cific regions or throughout Africa south of the Sahara. Although these simulations provide an improved, more detailed, and more


structured representation of trade and economic effects, they also face a num- ber of limitations, notably because of their structure and the database they are based on. In particular, they are based on several key assumptions, includ- ing the use of known and stable productivity shock and adoption rates in each country of production, masking the variability among producers, production practices (input use), regions, and years; a perfectly competitive world market; and a specific reference year. Their value is to provide some insight into the potential economywide effects of the use of GM crops in the region, based on specified assumptions. In this category, several studies focused on the effects of adopting GM cot-


ton (for example, Elbehri and MacDonald 2004; Anderson and Valenzuela 2007), a commodity that does not face any trade regulation (ICAC 2010),


Of which “possibly GM” and exported to Europe (US$ million)


37.7


0.04 0.03 1.5


0.01 0.2


Share of


total exports lost (%)


4.0


0.009 0.002 0.4


0.009 0.2


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