CEDAR FALLS COMPREHENSIVE PLAN HOUSING PROJECTION
Methodology Table 2.4 builds a 20 year housing demand model based on the population projection of 48,762 in 2030. Housing unit demand is calculated through the following process:
• Household population is calculated by multiplying the total population by the per- centage of the population in households (based on 2010 census data). This percent- age excludes population living in institutions, such as nursing homes or college dor- mitories.
The growth projections in Table 2.4 indicate a cumula- tive need for 3,778 housing units in Cedar Falls between 2010 and 2030. This indicates an average annual construc- tion of 189 housing units. The 2000-2010 average annual construction rate was 241 housing units, indicating that while the projected popula- tion growth rate is somewhat optimistic it still results in a construction rate less than that experienced in the 2000’s.
• Household demand is calculated by dividing household population by the number of people per household (based on 2010 census data). This determines the number of households in need of housing.
• Household demand is added to the projected number of vacant units (based on 2010 vacancy rate) to determine the housing unit need.
• Replacement need is estimated based on the number of housing units expected to be demolished or converted to other uses. Cities with older housing stock tend to have a higher replacement need, while cities with newer or well-maintained housing stock have a lower replacement need.
• Replacement need is added to housing unit need to determine the cumulative need, which indicates the total number of housing units that must be built during the plan- ning period.
• These calculations are recorded below by 5-year periods. In each column, the written year indicates the final year of the 5-year period.
The model assumes that average people per household will remain constant at 2.37 and the vacancy rate will remain constant at 4.46%.
Findings
The growth projections in Table 2.4 indicate a cumulative need for 3,778 hous- ing units in Cedar Falls between 2010 and 2030. This indicates an average an- nual construction of 189 housing units. The 2000-2010 average annual construc- tion rate was 241 housing units, indicating that while the projected popula- tion growth rate is somewhat optimistic it still results in a construction rate less than that experienced in the 2000’s.
RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS PROJECTION
The housing projections in Table 2.4 are used to estimate the amount of land needed to accommodate residential growth. It is anticipated that single family detached units will remain the predominant housing form in Cedar Falls throughout the planning pe- riod. However, Cedar Falls also has a high demand for multi-family housing, which will likely remain high. In addition to demand from UNI students, multi-family options such as townhomes, attached units, condominiums and apartments are expected to remain popular in many cities as the Millennial generation looks for affordable options and baby boomers look to retire to smaller homes.
Table 2.5 displays the amount of new land required for future residential development. The projections are based on the housing projection and the following assumptions:
40
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