DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE | CHAPTER 1
within the city. When a city is not satisfying all the retail needs of their residents, they are experiencing trade leakage. When a city’s sales are higher than would be neces- sary to meet the retail needs of their residents, they are said to have a trade surplus.
Figure 1.7 (Ref: ISU Retail Trade Analysis Report, 2010) shows the estimated Trade Surplus/Leakage for Cedar Falls. Cedar Falls’ estimated trade surplus has grown since 2001, reaching a high of more than $80 million in 2009. This suggests that Ce- dar Falls attracts retail spending from non-residents.
TRADE AREA CAPTURE
Trade Area Capture is another way to measure how many of residents’ retail dol- lars are being “captured” by local businesses. The city’s total annual retail sales are divided by the expected annual retail spending of its residents, to determine the “annual shopper equivalents” whose needs are satisfied by the city. When the num- ber of shopper equivalents is higher than the population, the city’s trade area is serving both residents and non-residents. Cedar Falls “annual shopper equivalents” have been consistently higher than its population, and have risen at a higher rate than population, indicating that Cedar Falls retailers are successfully capturing re- tail spending from consumers outside the city.
PULL FACTOR RATIO
Pull Factor Ratio measures the attractiveness, or “pull,” of the city’s retail environ- ment with regards to consumer spending. The ratio is calculated by dividing trade area capture (see above) by population. A ratio greater than 1 suggests that local businesses are attracting shoppers from outside the city, while a ratio lower than 1 indicates that residents are leaving the city to make purchases. Cedar Falls’ pull factor has been consistently above 1, indicating that local businesses are attracting shoppers from outside the city. However, Cedar Falls’ pull factor is approximately .25 below its peer group median, indicating there may be opportunity for Cedar Falls to enhance its pull.
Figure 1.7 - Es t imated Sales Surplus for Cedar Fal l s, Iowa, calculated annual ly for Fi scal Year s 2000-2009.
Source: Iowa State University Retail Trade Analysis Report, 2010 31
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