City of Cedar Falls Comprehensive Plan

CEDAR FALLS COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

Only a portion of the UNI enrollment must be excluded from the permanent resi- dent population. There are two groups of students that need not be taken out of the census population count:

1. Students that are not counted as Cedar Falls residents in the Census (for example, commuters from Waterloo) were never part of the general population count and therefore need not be excluded.

2. Some students counted in the census are also year-round permanent residents, and should therefore be kept in the census count as part of the general population.

This plan recommends us- ing an average annual growth rate of 1.25% that projects a 2030 population of 48,762. This annual growth rate is ap- proximately equal to the 50- year average growth rate from 1960-2010, but is higher than the most recent 10-year av- erage growth rate of 0.85% (2000-2010).

A growth rate of 1.25% re- flects Cedar Falls’ intention to actively recruit new residents through enhancements in job opportunities and quality of life amenities such as parks and trails.

The projection below estimates the exact number of students who should be ex- cluded from the permanent resident population by making the following assump- tions:

• Undergraduate students under age 24 are typically not full time/permanent residents • Graduate students of all ages are typically not full time/permanent residents

• Undergraduate students 25 and older (non-traditional students) are typically permanent residents of Cedar Falls (and do not need to be excluded from the Census number)

• Approximately 70% of UNI students live in Cedar Falls during the school year and were therefore counted as Cedar Falls residents in the Census

• The remaining 30% of students commute to UNI from outside of Cedar Falls and were therefore not counted as Cedar Falls residents in the Census

• All UNI students who live in Cedar Falls during the school year fill out the Census in Ce- dar Falls, (as opposed to filling out the Census in their home town or failing to fill out the Census at all.) Although there are likely some exceptions to this assumption, there is no reasonable way to estimate the number of exceptions.

Under this set of assumptions, the population projection estimates the permanent resident population of Cedar Falls by excluding 70% of enrolled undergraduate students under 24 years of age and 70% of enrolled graduate students (all ages) from the Census population estimate. The resulting number is an estimate of the permanent resident population of Cedar Falls. This number is used as a base population from which to apply our population growth rates outlined above.

Once the permanent population is projected through 2030, the student population is added back in to estimate the total Cedar Falls population (permanent and non- permanent residents) in each projection year. The student population in this case is calculated based on the exclusion criteria above and UNI target enrollments for 2015 (14,000) and 2020 (14,500). Table 1.8 shows the resulting projection.

This plan recommends using an average annual growth rate of 1.25% that projects a 2030 population of 48,762. This annual growth rate is approximately equal to the 50-year average growth rate from 1960-2010, but is higher than the most recent 10- year average growth rate of 0.85% (2000-2010).

A growth rate of 1.25% reflects Cedar Falls’ intention to actively recruit new resi- dents through enhancements in job opportunities and quality of life amenities such as parks and trails.

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